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SoFi Stock Isn’t a Dip Buy Despite Giving Back Recent Gains
SoFi Stock Isn’t a Dip Buy Despite Giving Back Recent Gains
No matter your opinion on President Biden's student debt relief plan, for $SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ stock, it's hard to deny that this announcement has only provided temporary relief. After surging on the news, shares in the fintech firm have given back their gains.
Returning to around $6 per share, you may think SoFi has bottomed out. Especially as selling from large shareholders like $SOFTBANK GROUP CO (SFTBY.US)$, and certain exchange-traded-funds (or ETFs) may be easing. Yet even if it's hitting a near-term bottom, that doesn't mean now's the time to buy ahead of a recovery.
Macro uncertainties could still weigh on it. They could keep the stock rangebound, or worse, push it down to even lower prices. If the stock had ample long-term upside potential, this wouldn't necessarily be an issue. However, long-term prospects are also up for debate. In short, my view on SOFI stock is unchanged.
Why SOFI Stock May Flounder in the Near-Term
While shares have pulled back, it's not as if the student loan program has been the main factor driving it lower. Stocks overall have sold off again, on the prospect of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Doing so could hurt SOFI stock in two ways. First, higher interest rates mean more pressure on growth stock valuations. Priced on (potential) future results, its discounted present valuation could take another hit.
Second, higher rates increase the chances of a recession. A recession could affect the performance of its loan portfolio. It could also negatively impact its revenue growth, and extend its timeline out of the red, and into consistent profitability.
Biden's student debt plan, which entails both partial forgiveness and a resumption of payments this January, does little to change the story. As I argued late last month, the upcoming changes may not necessarily result in borrowers refinancing their Federal student loans with a private lender like SoFi.
Again, the macro uncertainties stand to keep shares either rangebound or push them even lower in the near term. Worse yet, it's hard to argue this will turn out to be a "short-term pain for long-term gains" situation.
An Eventual Return to Double-Digit Prices Remains Questionable
Investors bullish on SOFI stock may admit that a return to its past high (nearly $25 per share) is a tall order. Its move to such lofty price levels was mainly a product of the speculative frenzy playing out last year.
Still, those owning it today may expect that a partial recovery will ultimately happen. Say, a return to $10-$15 per share. With this, buying now, or on further weakness, would look like a wise move, right?
It would be a potentially wise move if there wasn't so much clouding the argument that this financial services "disruptor" can sustain such a valuation. To get there, SoFi Technologies not only needs to start reporting positive earnings. It also needs to eventually generate earnings high enough to justify a $10-$15 per share stock price.
Current long-term analyst forecasts call for the company to earn just 28 cents per share by 2025. Assuming by then the stock would sport a valuation similar to that of a mature fintech company like $PayPal (PYPL.US)$. If we apply PYPL stock's current forward multiple (23.6x), that gives us a valuation of around $6.60 per share. That's barely above where SOFI trades today.
Bottom Line on SOFI Stock
As mentioned, my view on SoFi remains unchanged. The stock continues to earn a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. It's growing clearer that the student loan relief catalyst isn't going to have a tremendous effect on the company's operating performance.
Lifting the student loan moratorium may fail to result in a substantial increase in private student loan refinancing.
Coupled with other negatives that may affect results in the near term the shares could trade sideways, at best. At worst, they could move lower. Besides being a frustrating investment in the short term, SOFI could also end up being a disappointing investment in the years ahead.
Far from going up 2x, 3x, or even more, shares could deliver middling returns over a longer timeframe. With this, combined with its likely near-term trajectory, staying away continues to be the better move with SOFI stock.
On the date of publication, neither Louis Navellier nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
No matter your opinion on President Biden's student debt relief plan, for $SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ stock, it's hard to deny that this announcement has only provided temporary relief. After surging on the news, shares in the fintech firm have given back their gains.
无论您对总裁·拜登的学生债务减免计划有何看法,$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$股票,很难否认,这一声明只是提供了暂时的缓解。在这一消息传出后,金融科技公司的股价飙升,回吐了涨幅。
Returning to around $6 per share, you may think SoFi has bottomed out. Especially as selling from large shareholders like $SOFTBANK GROUP CO (SFTBY.US)$, and certain exchange-traded-funds (or ETFs) may be easing. Yet even if it's hitting a near-term bottom, that doesn't mean now's the time to buy ahead of a recovery.
回到每股6美元左右,你可能会认为SoFi已经触底。尤其是像这样的大股东抛售$软银(ADR) (SFTBY.US)$,某些交易所交易基金(或ETF)可能正在放松。然而,即使它在近期触底,也不意味着现在是在复苏之前买入的时候。
Macro uncertainties could still weigh on it. They could keep the stock rangebound, or worse, push it down to even lower prices. If the stock had ample long-term upside potential, this wouldn't necessarily be an issue. However, long-term prospects are also up for debate. In short, my view on SOFI stock is unchanged.
宏观不确定性仍可能令其承压。他们可以将股票保持在区间内,或者更糟糕的是,将其压低到更低的价格。如果该股有足够的长期上行潜力,这不一定是一个问题。然而,长期前景也有待商榷。简而言之,我对索菲股票的看法没有变化。
Why SOFI Stock May Flounder in the Near-Term
为什么索菲股票近期可能会举步维艰
While shares have pulled back, it's not as if the student loan program has been the main factor driving it lower. Stocks overall have sold off again, on the prospect of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
虽然股价有所回落,但学生贷款计划似乎并不是推动股价走低的主要因素。由于美联储继续提高利率以抑制通胀的前景,股市总体上再次遭到抛售。
Doing so could hurt SOFI stock in two ways. First, higher interest rates mean more pressure on growth stock valuations. Priced on (potential) future results, its discounted present valuation could take another hit.
这样做可能会在两个方面损害索菲的股票。首先,更高的利率意味着成长型股票估值面临更大压力。根据(潜在的)未来业绩定价,其贴现的当前估值可能会受到另一次打击。
Second, higher rates increase the chances of a recession. A recession could affect the performance of its loan portfolio. It could also negatively impact its revenue growth, and extend its timeline out of the red, and into consistent profitability.
其次,较高的利率增加了经济衰退的可能性。经济衰退可能会影响其贷款组合的表现。它还可能对其收入增长产生负面影响,并将其时间表从赤字延长到持续盈利。
Biden's student debt plan, which entails both partial forgiveness and a resumption of payments this January, does little to change the story. As I argued late last month, the upcoming changes may not necessarily result in borrowers refinancing their Federal student loans with a private lender like SoFi.
拜登的学生债务计划要求部分免除债务,并在今年1月恢复还款,但这对改变情况几乎没有什么作用。正如我上个月底所说,即将到来的变化可能不一定会导致借款人向SoFi这样的私人贷款机构为他们的联邦学生贷款进行再融资。
Again, the macro uncertainties stand to keep shares either rangebound or push them even lower in the near term. Worse yet, it's hard to argue this will turn out to be a "short-term pain for long-term gains" situation.
同样,宏观不确定性将使股价在短期内保持区间波动或进一步走低。更糟糕的是,很难辩称这将成为一种“短期痛苦换长期收益”的局面。
An Eventual Return to Double-Digit Prices Remains Questionable
最终恢复到两位数的价格仍然值得怀疑。
Investors bullish on SOFI stock may admit that a return to its past high (nearly $25 per share) is a tall order. Its move to such lofty price levels was mainly a product of the speculative frenzy playing out last year.
看好索菲股票的投资者可能会承认,回到过去的高点(每股近25美元)是一项艰巨的任务。它升至如此高的价格水平,主要是去年投机狂潮的产物。
Still, those owning it today may expect that a partial recovery will ultimately happen. Say, a return to $10-$15 per share. With this, buying now, or on further weakness, would look like a wise move, right?
尽管如此,那些今天拥有它的人可能会预计,部分复苏最终会发生。比方说,回到每股10-15美元。在这种情况下,现在买入,或者在进一步疲软时买入,看起来是一个明智的举措,对吗?
It would be a potentially wise move if there wasn't so much clouding the argument that this financial services "disruptor" can sustain such a valuation. To get there, SoFi Technologies not only needs to start reporting positive earnings. It also needs to eventually generate earnings high enough to justify a $10-$15 per share stock price.
如果没有太多人质疑这种金融服务“颠覆者”能够维持这样的估值,这将是一个潜在的明智举措。要做到这一点,SoFi Technologies不仅需要开始公布积极的收益。它还需要最终产生足够高的收益,以证明每股10美元至15美元的股价是合理的。
Current long-term analyst forecasts call for the company to earn just 28 cents per share by 2025. Assuming by then the stock would sport a valuation similar to that of a mature fintech company like $PayPal (PYPL.US)$. If we apply PYPL stock's current forward multiple (23.6x), that gives us a valuation of around $6.60 per share. That's barely above where SOFI trades today.
目前分析师的长期预测显示,到2025年,该公司每股收益仅为28美分。假设到那时,该公司股票的估值将类似于金融科技这样的成熟公司$PayPal (PYPL.US)$。如果我们采用PYPL股票目前的远期市盈率(23.6倍),我们得到的估值约为每股6.6美元。这仅略高于索菲目前的交易价格。
Bottom Line on SOFI Stock
SOFI股票的底线
As mentioned, my view on SoFi remains unchanged. The stock continues to earn a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. It's growing clearer that the student loan relief catalyst isn't going to have a tremendous effect on the company's operating performance.
如前所述,我对SoFi的看法没有改变。在我的公司中,该股继续获得D评级投资组合评分器。越来越清楚的是,学生贷款减免催化剂不会对公司的运营业绩产生巨大影响。
Lifting the student loan moratorium may fail to result in a substantial increase in private student loan refinancing.
取消学生贷款暂停可能无法导致私人学生贷款再融资的大幅增加。
Coupled with other negatives that may affect results in the near term the shares could trade sideways, at best. At worst, they could move lower. Besides being a frustrating investment in the short term, SOFI could also end up being a disappointing investment in the years ahead.
再加上其他可能影响近期业绩的负面因素,该公司股票充其量可能横盘交易。在最坏的情况下,它们可能会走低。索菲除了在短期内是一项令人沮丧的投资外,在未来几年也可能是一项令人失望的投资。
Far from going up 2x, 3x, or even more, shares could deliver middling returns over a longer timeframe. With this, combined with its likely near-term trajectory, staying away continues to be the better move with SOFI stock.
股价不仅不会上涨2倍、3倍甚至更多,反而可能在更长的时间内带来中等回报。考虑到这一点,再加上其可能的近期轨迹,远离索菲股票仍然是更好的选择。
On the date of publication, neither Louis Navellier nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
在文章发表之日,Louis Navellier和主要负责本文的InvestorPlace Research工作人员都没有(直接或间接)持有本文提到的证券的任何头寸。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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