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A Look At The Fair Value Of China All Nation International Holdings Group Limited (HKG:8170)
A Look At The Fair Value Of China All Nation International Holdings Group Limited (HKG:8170)
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of China All Nation International Holdings Group Limited (HKG:8170) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for China All Nation International Holdings Group
The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) | HK$40.8m | HK$43.4m | HK$45.5m | HK$47.2m | HK$48.7m | HK$50.0m | HK$51.2m | HK$52.3m | HK$53.3m | HK$54.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 8.29% | Est @ 6.27% | Est @ 4.85% | Est @ 3.86% | Est @ 3.17% | Est @ 2.68% | Est @ 2.34% | Est @ 2.11% | Est @ 1.94% | Est @ 1.82% |
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8% | HK$38.2 | HK$38.0 | HK$37.3 | HK$36.3 | HK$35.0 | HK$33.7 | HK$32.3 | HK$30.9 | HK$29.4 | HK$28.1 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$339m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$54m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.8%– 1.6%) = HK$1.0b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$1.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= HK$542m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$881m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$2.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:8170 Discounted Cash Flow September 1st 2022Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China All Nation International Holdings Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.087. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For China All Nation International Holdings Group, we've put together three relevant aspects you should further research:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with China All Nation International Holdings Group .
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我们将通过将预期的未来现金流量折现到今天的价值来估计中国环球国际控股集团有限公司(HKG:8170)的内在价值。这将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型来实现。这听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
查看我们对中国全国国际控股集团的最新分析
计算
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(港币,百万元) | 4,080万港元 | 港币4340万元 | 港币4,550万元 | 港币4720万元 | 港币4870万元 | 港币5,000万元 | 港币5,120万元 | 港币5230万元 | 港币5330万元 | 港币5420万元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@8.29% | Est@6.27% | Est@4.85% | Est@3.86% | Est@3.17% | Est@2.68% | Est@2.34% | Est@2.11% | Est@1.94% | Est@1.82% |
现值(港币,百万元)贴现@6.8% | 港币38.2元 | 港币38.0元 | 港币37.3元 | 港币36.3元 | 港币35.0元 | 港币33.7元 | 港币32.3元 | 港币30.9元 | 港币29.4元 | 港币28.1元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=3.39亿港元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用6.8%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=港币5400万×(1+1.6%)?(6.8%-1.6%)=港币10亿
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=10亿港元?(1+6.8%)10=5.42亿港元
总价值是未来10年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股本价值,在本例中为8.81亿港元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前2.3港元的股价相比,该公司在撰写本文时似乎接近公允价值。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
联交所:8170贴现现金流2022年9月1日重要假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将中国万国国际控股集团视为潜在股东,折现率使用股权成本,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了6.8%,这是基于杠杆率为1.087的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
下一步:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一一项分析。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于中国全国国际控股集团,我们总结了三个相关的方面,你应该进一步研究:
- 风险:为此,您应该意识到2个警告标志我们已经看到了中国全国国际控股集团的情况。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
- 其他顶级分析师选择:有兴趣看看分析师们在想什么吗?看看我们的交互式分析师首选股票列表,看看他们认为哪些股票可能具有诱人的未来前景!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对联交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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