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Is Skyworth Digital Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000810) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value
Is Skyworth Digital Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000810) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value
Does the August share price for Skyworth Digital Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000810) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Skyworth Digital
Crunching The Numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.13b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.13b | CN¥1.15b | CN¥1.17b | CN¥1.20b | CN¥1.23b | CN¥1.27b | CN¥1.30b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -3.15% | Est @ -1.23% | Est @ 0.11% | Est @ 1.05% | Est @ 1.71% | Est @ 2.17% | Est @ 2.49% | Est @ 2.71% | Est @ 2.87% | Est @ 2.98% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | CN¥1.0k | CN¥950 | CN¥879 | CN¥820 | CN¥771 | CN¥728 | CN¥689 | CN¥654 | CN¥621 | CN¥591 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥7.7b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.3b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.2%– 3.2%) = CN¥27b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥27b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= CN¥12b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥20b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥21.4, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SZSE:000810 Discounted Cash Flow August 28th 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Skyworth Digital as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.012. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Skyworth Digital, we've put together three essential factors you should explore:
- Risks: Be aware that Skyworth Digital is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Future Earnings: How does 000810's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
创维数码股份有限公司(SZSE:000810)8月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过获取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到其现值来估计股票的内在价值。实现这一点的一种方法是使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
查看我们对创维数码的最新分析
仔细研究这些数字
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元11.3亿元 | CN元11.1亿元 | CN元11.1亿元 | CN元11.3亿元 | CN元11.5亿元 | CN人民币11.7亿元 | CN人民币12.亿元 | CN元12.3亿元 | CN元12.7亿元 | CN人民币13.亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@-3.15% | Est@-1.23% | Est@0.11% | Est@1.05% | Est@1.71% | Est@2.17% | Est@2.49% | Est@2.71% | Est@2.87% | Est@2.98% |
现值(CN元,百万元)贴现8.2% | CN元10000元 | CN元950元 | CN元879元 | CN元820元 | CN元771元 | CN元728元 | CN元689元 | CN元654元 | CN元621元 | CN元591元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币77亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(3.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用8.2%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.3b×(1+3.2%)?(8.2%-3.2%)=CN元27b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元270亿?(1+8.2%)10=120亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股权价值,在本例中为人民币200b元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前21.4元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时似乎略有高估。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
深圳证券交易所:000810贴现现金流2022年8月28日假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将创维数码视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.2%,这是基于杠杆率为1.012的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
虽然很重要,但理想情况下,贴现现金流计算不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。股价超过内在价值的原因是什么?对于创维数字,我们总结了你应该探索的三个基本因素:
- 风险:请注意,创维数码正在上映我们的投资分析中的3个警告信号,你应该知道关于……
- 未来收益:000810的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对深交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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