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Jiangxi Copper Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Investors in Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (HKG:358) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at HK$10.22 following the release of its half-yearly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CN¥255b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit CN¥1.04 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Jiangxi Copper
SEHK:358 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 28th 2022Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from nine analysts covering Jiangxi Copper is for revenues of CN¥447.3b in 2022, implying a measurable 5.1% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 9.0% to CN¥1.59 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥446.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.51 in 2022. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Jiangxi Copper's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target fell 7.4% to HK$13.17, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Jiangxi Copper analyst has a price target of HK$24.84 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$7.83. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 9.9% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 20% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Jiangxi Copper's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Jiangxi Copper's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jiangxi Copper's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangxi Copper analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jiangxi Copper has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
投资者在江西铜业股份股份有限公司香港上市公司(HKG:358)在发布半年业绩后,股价上涨5.0%,收于10.22港元,本周表现良好。总体而言,这不是一个很好的结果。虽然2,550亿加元的收入与分析师的预测一致,但盈利低于预期,比法定预期低15%,达到每股1.04元。盈利对投资者来说是一个重要的时刻,因为他们可以跟踪一家公司的表现,看看分析师对明年的预测,以及对该公司的情绪是否发生了变化。我们收集了最新的法定预测,看看分析师是否在这些结果之后改变了他们的盈利模型。
看看我们对江西铜业股份的最新分析
联交所:358盈利及收入增长2022年8月28日在最近的收益报告之后,九位跟踪江西铜业股份的分析师一致认为2022年的收入将达到4473亿元人民币,这意味着与过去12个月相比,销售额将大幅下降5.1%。预计同期每股法定收益将下降9.0%至1.59加元。在本报告发布前,分析师们一直在模拟2022年收入4467亿加元,每股收益1.51加元。因此,在这些结果公布后,人们对江西铜业股份的盈利潜力似乎变得更加乐观了。
该公司普遍预期股价下跌7.4%,至13.17港元,表明上调盈利预期不足以抵消分析师的其他担忧。然而,这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的价格目标时,也喜欢考虑预期中的价差。最乐观的江西铜业股份分析师的目标价为每股24.84港元,而最悲观的分析师则认为目标价为7.83港元。因此,在这种情况下,我们不会对分析师的价格目标赋予太多可信度,因为对于这项业务能产生什么样的业绩,显然存在一些截然不同的观点。因此,根据共识价格目标做出决定可能不是一个好主意,毕竟,这只是这个广泛估计范围的平均值。
我们看待这些估计的另一种方式是放在更大的背景下,比如预测与过去的表现如何比较,以及预测相对于行业内的其他公司是更乐观还是更乐观。这些预估意味着销售预计将放缓,预计到2022年底,年化收入将下降9.9%。这表明,与过去五年20%的年增长率相比,这一数字大幅下降。相比之下,我们的数据表明,在可预见的未来,同一行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年4.0%的速度增长。很明显,江西铜业股份的营收预计将远远逊于整个行业。
底线
对我们来说,最大的收获是共识的每股收益上调,这表明人们对江西铜业股份明年盈利潜力的看法明显改善。从积极的一面来看,营收预期没有重大变化;尽管预测意味着营收表现将逊于整个行业。由于分析师似乎对最新的结果不放心,一致的目标价大幅下降,导致对江西铜业股份未来估值的估计较低。
话虽如此,该公司盈利的长期轨迹比明年重要得多。我们有多位江西铜业股份分析师对2024年的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
你还是需要注意风险,比如-江西铜业股份有1个警告标志我们认为你应该意识到。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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