Most people feel a little frustrated if a stock they own goes down in price. But often it is not a reflection of the fundamental business performance. So while the China BlueChemical Ltd. (HKG:3983) share price is down 15% in the last year, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -9.0%. That's better than the market which declined 18% over the last year. The silver lining (for longer term investors) is that the stock is still 2.0% higher than it was three years ago. The share price has dropped 23% in three months.
With the stock having lost 4.2% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Check out our latest analysis for China BlueChemical
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Even though the China BlueChemical share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
China BlueChemical's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:3983 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 25th 2022
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, China BlueChemical's TSR for the last 1 year was -9.0%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, China BlueChemical shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 9.0% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 18%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with China BlueChemical , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
如果他们拥有的股票价格下跌,大多数人都会感到有点沮丧。但它往往不能反映企业的基本面表现。因此,虽然中国蓝化股份有限公司(HKG:3983)去年股价下跌15%,股东总回报(包括股息)为-9.0%。这比去年下跌18%的市场要好。(对于长期投资者来说)一线希望是,该股仍比三年前高出2.0%。该公司股价在三个月内下跌了23%。
鉴于该公司股价在过去一周下跌了4.2%,我们有必要看看它的业务表现,看看是否有任何危险信号。
查看我们对中国蓝化的最新分析
虽然有效市场假说继续被一些人传授,但事实证明,市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者并不总是理性的。考察市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是观察一家公司的股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。
尽管中国蓝化的股价在过去一年里有所下降,但其每股收益实际上有所改善。可能是股价之前被过度炒作了。
令人惊讶的是,尽管每股收益有所改善,但股价却下跌了这么多。但我们可能会发现一些不同的衡量标准可以更好地解释股价走势。
在我们看来,中国蓝化的股息似乎是健康的,因此我们怀疑收益率是否令市场担忧。从我们看到的情况来看,营收相当持平,所以这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。当然,这可能只是因为它根本没有达到市场的普遍预期。
下图显示了收益和收入随时间的变化情况(如果您点击该图,您可以看到更多详细信息)。
联交所:3983盈利及收入增长2022年8月25日
我们很高兴地报告,这位首席执行官的薪酬比类似资本公司的大多数首席执行官都要低。但是,尽管CEO的薪酬总是值得检查的,但真正重要的问题是,公司能否在未来实现收益增长。因此,我们建议您查看以下内容免费显示共识预测的报告
那股息呢?
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。恰好,中国蓝化最近一年的TSR为-9.0%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事,但中国蓝化的股东可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在内,他们过去12个月9.0%的亏损没有市场亏损约18%那么糟糕。较长期的投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得4%的收益。可能该业务只是面临一些短期问题,但股东应密切关注基本面。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了1个警告信号与中国蓝化的合作,了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
当然了,如果你把目光投向别处,你可能会发现这是一笔很棒的投资。所以让我们来看看这个免费我们预计收益将会增长的公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。