The analysts covering InnoCare Pharma Limited (HKG:9969) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from nine analysts covering InnoCare Pharma is for revenues of CN¥538m in 2022, implying a concerning 55% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching CN¥0.46 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥599m and CN¥0.41 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
See our latest analysis for InnoCare Pharma
SEHK:9969 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 24th 2022
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥18.15, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values InnoCare Pharma at CN¥31.13 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥15.96. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 55% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 132% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 39% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - InnoCare Pharma is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of InnoCare Pharma.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple InnoCare Pharma analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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覆盖的分析师Innocare Pharma Limited香港上市公司(HKG:9969)今天对股东今年的法定预测进行了大幅修订,给股东们带来了一些负面影响。营收和每股收益(EPS)预期都遭到了下调,这表明分析师对这项业务的态度已经恶化到了极点。
评级下调后,研究InnoCare Pharma的九位分析师的共识是,2022年收入将达到5.38亿元人民币,这意味着与过去12个月相比,销售额下降了约55%。预计每股亏损将呈爆炸式增长,达到每股0.46元。然而,在这一估计更新之前,人们的共识是每股收入5.99亿加元,亏损0.41加元。因此,在最近的共识更新之后,人们的观点发生了相当大的变化,分析师们大幅下调了收入预期,同时预计每股亏损将会增加。
查看我们对InnoCare Pharma的最新分析
联交所:9969盈利及收入增长2022年8月24日
普遍的目标价大致保持在18.15加元不变,这或许暗示着,较弱的盈利前景预计不会对估值产生长期影响。然而,这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的价格目标时,也喜欢考虑预期中的价差。目前,最看好InnoCare Pharma的分析师对InnoCare Pharma的估值为每股31.13元人民币,而最悲观的分析师估值为15.96元人民币。这是一个相当广泛的估计价差,表明分析师们预测了该业务可能出现的各种结果。
了解这些预测的更多背景信息的一种方法是,看看它们与过去的表现如何比较,以及同行业的其他公司的表现如何。我们要强调的是,销售预计将逆转,预计到2022年底,年化收入将下降55%。与过去三年132%的历史增长率相比,这是一个显著的变化。相比之下,我们的数据表明,在可预见的未来,同一行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年39%的速度增长。因此,尽管预计其收入将会萎缩,但这片乌云并不会带来一线希望--InnoCare Pharma预计将落后于整个行业。
底线
最重要的是,分析师上调了对今年每股亏损的预期。令人遗憾的是,他们还下调了收入预期,最新预测表明,该业务的销售增长将低于更广泛的市场。鉴于评级下调,目标价没有变化令人费解,但由于预计今年将出现严重下滑,如果投资者对InnoCare Pharma有点警惕,我们不会感到惊讶。
即便如此,企业的长期发展轨迹对股东的价值创造要重要得多。我们从多位InnoCare Pharma分析师那里获得了到2024年的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
当然,看到公司管理层投资大笔资金投资一只股票,就像知道分析师是否在下调他们的预期一样有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下这个免费内部人士正在买入的股票清单。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。