Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 9.6% to US$31.37 over the past 7 days. Whether the upgrade is enough to drive the stock price higher is yet to be seen, however.
Following the upgrade, the current consensus from Northern Oil and Gas' six analysts is for revenues of US$1.5b in 2022 which - if met - would reflect a credible 3.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 70% to US$4.19. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.57 in 2022. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in analyst sentiment in recent times, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas
NYSE:NOG Earnings and Revenue Growth August 23rd 2022
Although the analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$44.91, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Northern Oil and Gas at US$63.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Northern Oil and Gas' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 31% p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 6.0% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, Northern Oil and Gas is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. On the plus side, they also lifted their revenue estimates, and the company is expected to perform better than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Northern Oil and Gas could be a good candidate for more research.
Analysts are clearly in love with Northern Oil and Gas at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as a weak balance sheet. You can learn more, and discover the 4 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Northern Oil and Gas Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
北方石油天然气公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:NOG)今天,随着分析师大幅上调今年的预测,股东们将有理由微笑。分析师们大幅上调了营收预期,表明企业基本面出现了明显改善。投资者情绪似乎也在改善,过去7天,该公司股价上涨9.6%,至31.37美元。然而,此次升级是否足以推高股价还有待观察。
升级后,北方石油天然气公司的六位分析师目前的共识是,2022年的收入将达到15亿美元-如果得到满足-将反映出其过去12个月的销售额可信地增长了3.3%。每股收益预计将飙升70%,至4.19美元。此前,分析师一直在预测2022年的营收为13亿美元,每股收益(EPS)为2.57美元。因此,我们可以看到,最近分析师的信心有了相当明显的提高,在最新的估计中,收入和每股收益都得到了相当大的提升。
查看我们对北方石油天然气公司的最新分析
纽约证券交易所:NOG收益和收入增长2022年8月23日
尽管分析师上调了盈利预期,但一致预期的44.91美元目标价没有变化,表明预测业绩不会对公司估值产生长期影响。看看分析师估计的范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异也可能是有启发意义的。目前,最乐观的分析师对北方石油天然气公司的估值为每股63.00美元,而最悲观的分析师估值为30.00美元。这是一个相当广泛的估计价差,表明分析师们预测了该业务可能出现的各种结果。
当然,看待这些预测的另一种方式是将它们放在与行业本身相反的背景下。我们要强调的是,北方石油天然气公司的收入增长预计将放缓,截至2022年底的预测年化增长率为6.7%,远低于历史上31%的年增长率。过去五年的增长。相比之下,我们的数据显示,类似行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年6.0%的速度缩水。因此,很明显,尽管增长放缓,北方石油天然气公司的增长速度仍有望显著快于整个行业。
底线
此次上调最重要的一点是,分析师上调了对今年每股收益的预期,预计商业状况会有所改善。从积极的一面来看,他们还上调了营收预期,预计该公司的表现将好于大盘。一些投资者可能会失望地看到目标价保持不变,但我们认为,基本面改善通常是积极的-假设这些预测得到满足!因此,北方石油天然气公司可能是更多研究的一个很好的候选者。
分析师目前显然爱上了北方石油天然气公司,但在深入分析之前,你应该意识到,我们已经确定了该业务的一些警告信号,比如疲软的资产负债表。你可以在我们的平台上免费了解更多,并发现我们已经确定的其他4个问题。
我们还提供了北方石油和天然气董事会和首席执行官的薪酬和在公司的任期,以及内部人士是否一直在购买股票的概述。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。