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Is Linklogis Inc. (HKG:9959) Worth HK$5.1 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?
Is Linklogis Inc. (HKG:9959) Worth HK$5.1 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?
Does the August share price for Linklogis Inc. (HKG:9959) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Linklogis
Is Linklogis Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥552.0m | CN¥501.0m | CN¥472.1m | CN¥455.3m | CN¥446.1m | CN¥441.8m | CN¥440.9m | CN¥442.3m | CN¥445.3m | CN¥449.6m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -5.76% | Est @ -3.57% | Est @ -2.03% | Est @ -0.96% | Est @ -0.21% | Est @ 0.32% | Est @ 0.69% | Est @ 0.95% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8% | CN¥517 | CN¥439 | CN¥388 | CN¥350 | CN¥321 | CN¥298 | CN¥279 | CN¥262 | CN¥247 | CN¥233 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.3b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥450m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.8%– 1.6%) = CN¥8.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥8.7b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= CN¥4.5b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥7.9b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$5.1, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SEHK:9959 Discounted Cash Flow August 18th 2022The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Linklogis as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.058. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Linklogis, we've put together three additional factors you should explore:
- Financial Health: Does 9959 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 9959's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Linklogis Inc.(HKG: 9959)8月份的股价是否反映了它的真正价值?今天,我们将通过估算公司未来的现金流并将其折现为现值来估算股票的内在价值。实现这一目标的一种方法是采用贴现现金流 (DCF) 模型。听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
我们要提醒的是,对公司进行估值的方法有很多,就像DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优点和缺点。如果你对这种估值还有一些迫切的问题,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
看看我们对 Linklogis 的最新分析
Linklogis 的估值是否公平?
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,这仅意味着公司的现金流有两个不同的增长期。通常,第一阶段是较高的增长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们会使用分析师的估计值,但是当这些估计值不可用时,我们会从最新的估计值或报告的价值中推断出之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值折现为以今天的美元计算的估计价值:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | CN¥552.0 | CN¥5.010 亿 | CN¥472.1 | CN¥455.3m | CN¥446.1m | CN¥4.418 | CN¥4.409 | 442.3 万人民币 | CN¥445.3m | CN¥449.6 |
增长率估算来源 | 分析师 x1 | 分析师 x1 | Est @ -5.76% | Est @ -3.57% | Est @ -2.03% | Est @ -0.96% | Est @ -0.21% | Est @ 0.32% | Est @ 0.69% | 东部标准时间 @ 0.95% |
现值(人民币,百万)折扣价 @ 6.8% | CN¥517 | CN¥439 | CN¥388 | CN¥350 | CN¥321 | CN¥298 | CN¥279 | CN¥262 | CN¥247 | CN¥233 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = cn¥3.3b
我们现在需要计算终端价值,该价值考虑了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我们将终端现金流折现为今天的价值,权益成本为6.8%。
终端价值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = cn¥450m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.8% — 1.6%) = cn¥8.7b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= cn¥8.7b÷ (1 + 6.8%)10= 45b cn¥45
总价值是未来十年的现金流之和加上折现的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为79亿元人民币。为了获得每股的内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。相对于目前的5.1港元股价,在撰写本文时,该公司的估值似乎略有高估。但是请记住,这只是一个近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样——垃圾进来,垃圾出去。
香港交易所:9959 2022 年 8 月 18 日贴现现金流假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面描述公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将Linklogis视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了 6.8%,这是基于杠杆测试版1.058。与整个市场相比,Beta是衡量股票波动率的指标。我们的测试值来自全球可比公司的行业平均测试值,施加的限制在0.8到2.0之间,对于稳定的业务而言,这是一个合理的范围。
继续前进:
尽管重要,但DCF计算只是公司需要评估的众多因素之一。DCF 模型不是完美的股票估值工具。最好你应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率发生急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。股价超过内在价值的原因是什么?对于 Linklogis,我们汇总了你应该探索的另外三个因素:
- 财务健康: 9959 的资产负债表健康吗?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆率和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
- 未来收益: 与同行和整个市场相比,9959的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他高质量的替代品: 你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还缺少什么!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只香港股票的差价合约计算方法,因此,如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需在这里搜索即可。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章无意提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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