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Is Hang Lung Properties (HKG:101) A Risky Investment?
Is Hang Lung Properties (HKG:101) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Hang Lung Properties Limited (HKG:101) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Hang Lung Properties
What Is Hang Lung Properties's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Hang Lung Properties had HK$44.9b of debt, an increase on HK$41.7b, over one year. On the flip side, it has HK$4.73b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$40.2b.
SEHK:101 Debt to Equity History August 18th 2022How Strong Is Hang Lung Properties' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Hang Lung Properties had liabilities of HK$13.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$55.0b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of HK$4.73b and HK$3.80b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by HK$60.2b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of HK$60.1b, we think shareholders really should watch Hang Lung Properties's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Strangely Hang Lung Properties has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.8, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 17.7. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. We saw Hang Lung Properties grow its EBIT by 4.6% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hang Lung Properties's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Hang Lung Properties's free cash flow amounted to 48% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Hang Lung Properties's net debt to EBITDA and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Hang Lung Properties is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Hang Lung Properties has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
伯克希尔哈撒韦的外部基金经理理想汽车·卢直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样恒隆地产有限公司(HKG:101)利用债务。但股东是否应该担心它的债务使用情况?
为什么债务会带来风险?
当一家企业无法轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他债务就会变得有风险,无论是通过自由现金流还是通过以有吸引力的价格筹集资本。在最糟糕的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人的债务,它可能会破产。然而,一种更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东的股份,才能控制债务。当然,许多公司利用债务为增长提供资金,没有任何负面后果。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。
参见我们对恒隆地产的最新分析
恒隆地产的净负债是多少?
你可以点击下图查看历史数据,但它显示,截至2022年6月,恒隆地产的债务为449亿港元,比一年前增加了417亿港元。另一方面,该公司拥有47.3亿港元现金,净债务约为402亿港元。
联交所:101债转股历史2022年8月18日恒隆地产的资产负债表有多强?
根据最近一次公布的资产负债表,恒隆地产有137亿港元的负债在12个月内到期,550亿港元的负债在12个月后到期。另一方面,该公司有47.3亿港元的现金和38亿港元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,其负债比现金和(近期)应收账款之和高出602亿港元。
鉴于这一赤字实际上高于该公司601亿港元的市值,我们认为股东真的应该关注恒隆地产的债务水平,就像父母第一次看孩子骑车一样。在该公司不得不迅速清理其资产负债表的情况下,股东似乎可能会遭受广泛的稀释。
我们通过查看公司的净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),并计算其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖利息支出(利息覆盖)的容易程度,来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力的关系。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。
奇怪的是,恒隆地产的EBITDA比率高达5.8,意味着债务很高,但利息覆盖率高达17.7%。这意味着,除非该公司能够获得非常廉价的债务,否则未来的利息支出可能会增加。我们看到恒隆地产在过去12个月中息税前利润增长了4.6%。这并不令人难以置信,但在偿还债务方面,这是一件好事。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定恒隆地产未来能否保持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,合乎逻辑的一步是看看息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在过去三年中,恒隆地产的自由现金流占其息税前利润的48%,低于我们的预期。这种疲软的现金转换增加了处理债务的难度。
我们的观点
恒隆地产的净债务与EBITDA之比和总负债水平肯定会给它带来压力,这是我们的尊重。但它的利息封面讲述了一个非常不同的故事,并暗示了一些弹性。当我们考虑所有讨论的因素时,在我们看来,恒隆地产使用债务似乎是在承担一些风险。虽然这笔债务可以提高回报,但我们认为该公司现在有足够的杠杆。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。例如-恒隆地产有1个警告标志我们认为你应该意识到。
如果你有兴趣投资于可以在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的企业,那么看看这个免费资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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