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China Literature Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
China Literature Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
China Literature Limited (HKG:772) last week reported its latest half-yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CN¥0.22, some 63% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CN¥4.1b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for China Literature
SEHK:772 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 17th 2022Taking into account the latest results, China Literature's 18 analysts currently expect revenues in 2022 to be CN¥8.28b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 9.5% to CN¥0.88 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥9.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.25 in 2022. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$44.10 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Literature at HK$87.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$29.95. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 3.2% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. It's pretty clear that China Literature's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple China Literature analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the China Literature Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
阅文集团有限公司(HKG:772)上周公布了最新的半年业绩,这使现在是投资者潜入的好时机,看看业务表现是否符合预期。法定每股收益远低于预期,为人民币0.22元,较分析师预期低约63%,不过营收尚可,与分析师预期的人民币41亿加元大致一致。分析师通常会在每一份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的担忧需要注意。因此,我们收集了最新的盈利后预测,看看估计数字对明年的影响。
参见我们对阅文集团的最新分析
联交所:772盈利及收入增长2022年8月17日考虑到最新的业绩,阅文集团的18位分析师目前预计2022年的收入为82.8亿元人民币,与过去12个月大致持平。预计同期法定每股收益减少9.5%,至0.88加元。在这份收益报告之前,分析师们一直预测2022年收入为92.7亿加元,每股收益为1.25加元。在这些业绩公布后,市场人气似乎大幅下降,营收预期大幅下降,每股收益数字也大幅下调。
尽管下调了预期收益,但44.10港元的目标价并未发生实质性变化,这表明分析师认为这些变化不会对其内在价值产生重大影响。不过,还有另一种方式来考虑价格目标,那就是看看分析师提出的价格目标的范围,因为广泛的估计可能表明,对企业可能出现的结果有不同的看法。目前,最乐观的分析师对阅文集团的估值为每股87.4港元,而最悲观的分析师对其估值为29.95港元。在这种情况下,我们可能会对分析师的预测给予较低的价值,因为如此广泛的估计范围可能意味着,这项业务的未来很难准确估值。考虑到这一点,我们不会过于依赖共识目标价,因为这只是一个平均值,分析师显然对该业务有一些严重的分歧。
当然,看待这些预测的另一种方式是将它们放在与行业本身相反的背景下。这些预估意味着销售预计将放缓,预计到2022年底,年化收入将下降3.2%。这表明,与过去五年19%的年增长率相比,这一数字大幅下降。与我们的数据相比,我们的数据表明,同一行业的其他公司预计收入将以每年18%的速度增长。很明显,阅文集团的营收预计将远远逊于整个行业。
底线
最重要的是,分析师们下调了他们的每股收益预期,表明业绩公布后,市场人气明显下降。不幸的是,他们也下调了收入预期,我们的数据表明,收入预计会比整个行业表现得更差。即便如此,每股收益对企业的内在价值更为重要。共识目标价没有实际变化,这表明根据最新估计,该业务的内在价值没有发生任何重大变化。
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为,投资者需要考虑的更长期的业务轨迹要重要得多。我们有多位阅文集团分析师对2024年的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
我们还提供了阅文集团董事会和首席执行官的薪酬和在公司的任期,以及内部人士是否一直在买入股票的概述。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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