10 Stocks That Could Rise 10x (Safely)
10 Stocks That Could Rise 10x (Safely)
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This article is excerpted from Tom Yeung's Profit & Protection newsletter dated Aug. 9, 2022. To make sure you don't miss any of Tom's picks, subscribe to his mailing list here.
本文摘自 Tom Yeung 于 2022 年 8 月 9 日发布的《利润与保护》时事通讯。为了确保你不会错过任何东西 在 Tom 的精选中，请在此处订阅他的邮件列表。
Let's face it. Finding 10x stocks is tough.
让我们面对现实吧。 找到 10 倍的股票很难。
For every Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) that claws its way from $18 to $180, another dozen look more like Voyager Digital (OTCMKTS:VYGVQ), a crypto trading platform that went bankrupt after losing $650 million on a loan.
对于每一个人 元平台 （纳斯达克：元) 从 18 美元涨到 180 美元，再有十几个看起来更像 旅行者数字版 (OTCMKTS:VYGVQ），一个加密交易平台，在贷款损失6.5亿美元后破产。
Or Enjoy Technology (OTCMKTS:ENJYQ), a SPAC that went bankrupt within 9 months of listing…
或者 享受科技 (OTCMKTS:ENJYQ)，一家在上市后9个月内破产的特殊目的收购公司...
…Or Quibi… Celsius… Electric Last Mile (OTCMKTS:ELMSQ)…
... 或者是 Quibi... 摄氏度... 电动最后一英里 (OTCMKTS:ELMSQ)...。
That's because high-growth investing is much like finding a career in acting or one in organized crime.
那是因为高增长投资就像在演艺界或有组织犯罪领域寻找职业一样。
It's a high-risk, high-reward activity.
这是一项高风险、高回报的活动。
Yet, some venture capital funds have made Hollywood stardom look easy. The well-regarded Sequoia Fund has managed to pump out 13% returns since its inception in 1970. $10,000 invested at its start would be worth $6 million today. And smaller funds like Union Square Ventures' 2004 vintage have done even better by netting investors a 67% IRR. All without joining the mafia.
然而，一些风险投资基金让好莱坞的明星地位显得轻而易举。备受推崇的 红杉基金 自1970年成立以来，已成功实现了13％的回报。一开始投资的1万美元今天将价值600万美元。还有小型基金，比如 联合广场风险投资公司 2004年的收益率甚至更好，投资者净收益率为67％。所有这些都没有加入黑手党。
These funds understand that every fund only needs a couple of billion-dollar exits to offset the other bets that fall to zero. And the more you can tilt the scales in your favor, the better the chance of long-term success.
这些基金明白，每只基金只需要几十亿美元的退出就能抵消其他跌至零的赌注。而且，你越能向自己倾斜，长期成功的机会就越大。
Finding the Billion-Dollar Winners
寻找十亿美元的赢家
So, how can regular investors gain an advantage?
那么，普通投资者如何获得优势呢？
The most obvious way to land billion-dollar winners is to scatter bets across early stage tech companies with plenty of buzz.
获得数十亿美元赢家的最明显方法是将赌注分散在热议的早期科技公司身上。
It's also the wrong way.
这也是错误的方法。
Data gathered by Profit & Protection has long shown that positive earnings growth is unintuitively a negative factor for returns. By scattering bets across too many hot-shots, investors tend to set themselves up for long-term underperformance.
收集的数据由 利润与保护 长期以来一直表明，盈利正增长是不直观的 负面因素 用于退货。通过将赌注分散在太多的热门人物上，投资者往往会为长期表现不佳做好准备。
Instead, the Profit & Protection system has two proven ways to find more promising Moonshots with 10x potential.
相反， 利润与保护 系统有两种行之有效的方法可以找到潜力为10倍的更有前途的 Moonshots。
1. High-Potential Tech Stocks on Blue-Light Special
1。蓝光特辑中的高潜力科技股
The first strategy is finding beaten-down tech stocks where the market has thrown in the towel.
第一种策略是寻找市场已经陷入困境的被击败的科技股。
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in 1997…
苹果 （纳斯达克：AAPL) 在 1997 年...
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in 2001…
亚马逊 （纳斯达克：AMZN) 在 2001 年...
Facebook (FB) in 2012…
2012 年的 Facebook (FB)...
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in 2018 (not 2022)…
特斯拉 （纳斯达克：TSLA) 在 2018 年（不是 2022 年）...
That's because even high-flying companies can run into short-term issues. And at these brief moments, the echo chamber of mainstream media can turn small speed bumps into a mountain of trouble.
那是因为即使是飞速发展的公司也可能遇到短期问题。在这些短暂的时刻，主流媒体的回声室可能会将小减速带变成一堆麻烦。
"Amazon hopes that investors will ignore the inconvenient expense numbers in the real income statement," one New York Times article wrote in 2001, "which will be left out of the creative one the company emphasizes."
一位人士说：“亚马逊希望投资者忽略实际损益表中令人不安的支出数字。” 《纽约时报》 文章在2001年写道，“这将被排除在公司强调的创意之外。”
Yet, these negative headlines can provide incredible buying opportunities, especially if the company's market capitalization falls below $5 billion. And if you can separate the Pets.coms from the Amazons, you're even better equipped to find these 10x winners.
然而，这些负面新闻可以提供令人难以置信的买入机会，尤其是在该公司的市值降至50亿美元以下的情况下。而且，如果你能将Pets.com与亚马逊分开，那么你就更有能力找到这些10倍的赢家。
Today, plenty of high-quality companies now meet this first Profit & Protection strategy.
如今，许多高质量的公司现在都满足了第一个 “利润与保护” 战略。
- Desktop Metal (NYSE:DM). The 3D printing company trades 92% below its all-time high, despite its market-leading position in high-speed metal-printing machines.
- Ginkgo Bioworks (NYSE:DNA). The bioengineering firm trades 82% off its peak and is a leader in bringing biotech to industrial applications.
- SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI). The fintech darling trades 68% below its highs, despite rapid growth and a sticky customer base.
- RealReal (NASDAQ:REAL). The discount e-commerce firm is gaining scale as rivals are facing steep declines.
- POSaBIT Systems (OTCMKTS:POSAF). A Canadian point-of-sale company has few competitors in the highly regulated world of cannabis finance.
- Upstart Holdings (NYSE:UPST). The cloud-based AI lending platform has fallen 93% from its all-time high despite maintaining hyper-speed growth in its industry.
- 台式机金属 （纽约证券交易所：马克)。尽管这家3D打印公司在高速金属打印机方面处于市场领先地位，但其交易价格仍比历史最高水平低92％。
- Ginkgo Bioworks （纽约证券交易所：DNA)。这家生物工程公司的交易价格比峰值低了82％，是将生物技术应用于工业应用的领导者。
- SoFi （纳斯达克：索菲)。尽管增长迅速，客户群很多，但这家金融科技宠儿的交易价格仍比其高点低68％。
- RealReal （纳斯达克：真实的)。由于竞争对手面临急剧下滑，这家折扣电子商务公司的规模正在扩大。
- PosaBit 系统（OTCMKTS：POSAF)。在高度监管的大麻金融领域，一家加拿大销售点公司几乎没有竞争对手。
- 新贵控股 （纽约证券交易所：精神失调)。尽管该行业保持了超高速增长，但基于云的人工智能贷款平台已从历史最高水平下跌了93％。
These firms are all leaders in their respective fields. And that's essential.
这些公司都是各自领域的领导者。 这是必不可少的。
Consider Facebook in social media, Amazon in e-commerce and Tesla in electric vehicles.
以社交媒体中的Facebook为例，电子商务领域的亚马逊和电动汽车中的特斯拉。
Hypergrowth winners aren't always the first in the field…
Hypergrowth 的赢家并不总是该领域的第一个...
…But they're always the strongest competitor.
... 但他们永远是最强的竞争对手。
Given the choice between the No. 1 star vs. the No. 2 value play, hypergrowth investors should choose the former every time.
考虑到在排名第一的明星和排名第二的价值组合之间做出选择，超增长的投资者每次都应该选择前者。
2. Perpetual Money Machines
2。永久赚钱机器
Meanwhile, a second class of companies can also provide investors with 10x returns… provided you wait long enough.
同时，第二类公司也可以为投资者提供10倍的回报... 前提是你等待足够长的时间。
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). +24,900% since 1992…
星巴克 （纳斯达克：SBUX)。自 1992 年以来增长了 24,900%...
Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ:SIVB). +62,000% since 1987…
硅谷银行 （纳斯达克：SIVB)。自 1987 年以来 +62,000%...
Home Depot (NYSE:HD). +508,700% since 1982…
家得宝 （纽约证券交易所：高清)。自 1982 年以来已有 +508,700%...
These companies are what I call Perpetual Money Machines. By earning high returns and reinvesting the proceeds at equally high rates, these slow-burners keep marching upwards in both good times and bad. It's compound interest at its finest.
这些公司就是我所说的 永久赚钱机器。通过赚取高回报并以同样高的利率将所得款项再投资，这些慢烧者在好时期和坏时期都在向上迈进。这是最好的复利。
Investors need patience with these Money Machines. A Home Depot shareholder might have happily sold their stake in 1986 for 400% returns but then miss out on more significant gains down the road.
投资者需要耐心对待这些赚钱机器。家得宝的股东可能很乐意在1986年以400％的回报率出售其股份，但随后错过了未来更可观的收益。
Meanwhile, those with more self-restraint can often turn small investments into massive retirement portfolios.
同时，那些自我约束力更强的人通常可以将小额投资转化为庞大的退休投资组合。
To identify some of these firms, I've taken the quantitative Profit & Protection system and selected only high return on invested capital (or ROIC) companies trading under $5 billion market capitalizations with the potential for internal reinvestment.
为了确定其中一些公司，我采用了量化方法 利润与保护 系统，仅选择市值低于50亿美元且有可能进行内部再投资的高投资回报率（或ROIC）公司。
- Shoals Technologies Group (NASDAQ:SHLS). The Tennessee-based manufacturing firm creates high-value electrical balance of systems (eBOS) for PV solar panel arrays. It's a major winner of global decarbonization efforts.
- Gentex Corporation (NASDAQ:GNTX). The auto-parts manufacturer has pursued high-value businesses such as dimming rearview mirrors and camera-based driving systems. Growth in autonomous driving almost guarantees revenue growth for the next decade.
- Alignment Healthcare (NASDAQ:ALHC). The Medicare provider looks much like UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) and other insurers that grew shares 10x. It's a high-barrier-to-entry business that rewards existing players handsomely.
- Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT). The franchise-based fitness firm shields itself from cyclical demand by shifting financial risk to its franchisees. A shift away from home exercise equipment will boost demand in the near term.
- 浅滩科技集团 （纳斯达克：SHLS)。这家总部位于田纳西州的制造公司为光伏太阳能电池板阵列创造了高价值的系统电气平衡（EBO）。它是全球脱碳努力的主要赢家。
- Gentex 公司 （纳斯达克：GNTX)。这家汽车零部件制造商一直在追求高价值业务，例如调光后视镜和基于摄像头的驾驶系统。自动驾驶的增长几乎保证了未来十年的收入增长。
- 协调医疗 （纳斯达克：ALHC)。医疗保险提供者长得很像 联合健康 （纽约证券交易所：UNH）以及其他股票增长10倍的保险公司。这是一项进入门槛很高的业务，可以为现有玩家提供丰厚的奖励。
- 星球健身 （纽约证券交易所：植物)。这家以特许经营为基础的健身公司通过将财务风险转移给加盟商，从而保护自己免受周期性需求的影响。远离家用健身器材将在短期内提振需求。
Not every firm will do well, of course. Franchise-based companies like Planet Fitness can do well, like Starbucks…
当然，并非每家公司都能表现出色。像Planet Fitness这样的特许经营公司可以做得很好，比如星巴克...
…or implode like Quiznos if they over-expand or alienate their franchisees.
... 或者如果他们过度扩张或疏远加盟商，他们就会像 Quiznos 一样崩溃。
But as a group, these Perpetual Money Machines operate in industries with high barriers to entry and earn sustainably high returns.
但是作为一个群体，这些 永久赚钱机器 在进入门槛高的行业开展业务，并获得可持续的高回报。
How to Invest Like a Venture Capitalist
如何像风险投资家一样投资
When investing on crowdfunding sites like StartEngine, many accredited investors act as I do at a buffet.
在诸如此类的众筹网站上投资时 启动引擎，许多合格投资者的行为就像我在自助餐时一样。
A bite of quick-service kitchen Speedy Eats…
一口快餐厨房 极速食品...
A sip of hard coffee firm Cask & Kettle…
喝一口硬咖啡公司 酒桶和水壶...
A stop by Seattle-based Here Today Brewery & Kitchen…
在西雅图停留 今日来这里啤酒厂和厨房...
You can afford to take dozens of samples when you have a big appetite (or huge pocketbook). Early stage venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz alone counts 232 companies in its active portfolio
当你胃口大（或钱包很大）时，你可以负担得起采集数十个样本的费用。处于早期阶段的风险投资公司 安德森·霍洛维茨 仅其活跃投资组合中就有232家公司
Meanwhile, investors buying later-stage companies on public markets need to act more like my partner at his favorite ice cream store.
同时，在公开市场上收购后期公司的投资者需要表现得更像我在他最喜欢的冰淇淋店的合伙人。
"One tub of the Michigan special Superman ice cream," he would say. "And that will be all, please."
他会说：“一桶密歇根州的特别超人冰淇淋。”“拜托，仅此而已。”
These professionals concentrate their bets on fewer big plays. Private equity firm Thoma Bravo fits neatly into this category.
这些职业选手将赌注集中在较少的大型比赛上。私募股权公司 Thoma Bravo 完全属于这个类别。
That's because when buying 10x companies (rather than 100x or 1,000x ones), investors need to make fewer bets, so that home runs make a difference.
那是因为在购买10倍的公司（而不是100倍或1,000倍的公司）时，投资者需要减少下注，这样本垒打才能有所作为。
Tom Yeung is the editor of Profit & Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad. To join Profit & Protection — and claim a free copy of Tom's latest report — go here to sign up for free!
Tom Yeung是《Profit & Protection》的编辑，这是一封关于在景气时期进行投资以获利并在不景气时期保护收益的免费电子信。要加入 Profit & Protection，并免费索取 Tom 最新报告的副本，请前往此处免费注册！
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