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Is Maanshan Iron & Steel (HKG:323) A Risky Investment?
Is Maanshan Iron & Steel (HKG:323) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited (HKG:323) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Maanshan Iron & Steel
What Is Maanshan Iron & Steel's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Maanshan Iron & Steel had debt of CN¥14.5b at the end of March 2022, a reduction from CN¥19.8b over a year. However, it also had CN¥13.8b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥715.1m.
SEHK:323 Debt to Equity History August 9th 2022How Healthy Is Maanshan Iron & Steel's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Maanshan Iron & Steel had liabilities of CN¥44.6b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥7.61b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥13.8b and CN¥11.6b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥26.9b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of CN¥21.4b, we think shareholders really should watch Maanshan Iron & Steel's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Maanshan Iron & Steel has very modest net debt levels, with net debt at just 0.072 times EBITDA. Happily, it actually managed to receive more interest than it paid, over the last year. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt as easily as enthusiastic spray-tanners take on an orange hue. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Maanshan Iron & Steel has boosted its EBIT by 52%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Maanshan Iron & Steel's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Maanshan Iron & Steel produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 75% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
The good news is that Maanshan Iron & Steel's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But we must concede we find its level of total liabilities has the opposite effect. All these things considered, it appears that Maanshan Iron & Steel can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Maanshan Iron & Steel , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
马克斯说得很好,他不是担心股价波动,而是我担心的是永久亏损的可能性……我认识的每个实际投资者都担心。当我们考虑一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务过重可能导致破产。我们可以看到马鞍山钢铁股份有限公司(HKG:323)确实在其业务中使用债务。但这笔债务对股东来说是一个担忧吗?
债务在什么时候是危险的?
一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是用自己的现金流。在最糟糕的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人的债务,它可能会破产。尽管这并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债累累的公司永久性地稀释股东的权益,因为贷款人迫使他们以令人沮丧的价格筹集资金。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司对债务管理得相当好--并对自己有利。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
查看我们对马钢的最新分析
马钢的债务是什么?
下图显示,截至2022年3月底,马钢的债务为人民币145亿元,较一年前的人民币198亿元有所减少。然而,它也有138亿元现金,因此其净债务为7.151亿元。
联交所:323债转股历史2022年8月9日马钢的资产负债表有多健康?
从最近的资产负债表可以看出,马钢有446亿元的负债在一年内到期,还有76.1亿元的负债在一年内到期。另一方面,它有138亿加元的现金和116亿加元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,其负债比现金和(近期)应收账款之和高出269亿元。
鉴于这一赤字实际上高于该公司214亿元的市值,我们认为股东们真的应该关注马钢的债务水平,就像父母第一次看孩子骑车一样。假设,如果该公司被迫通过以当前股价筹集资金来偿还债务,将需要极大的稀释。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。
马钢的净债务水平非常低,净债务仅为息税折旧摊销前利润的0.072倍。令人高兴的是,在过去的一年里,它实际上设法获得了比支付更多的利息。因此,毫无疑问,这家公司可以很容易地负债,就像热情的喷雾晒黑者呈现橙色一样。除此之外,我们很高兴地报告,马钢已将其息税前利润提高了52%,从而降低了未来偿还债务的幽灵。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但马钢未来能否保持健康的资产负债表,最重要的将是未来的收益。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,我们显然需要看看息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年里,马钢产生了相当于息税前利润75%的强劲自由现金流,这与我们预期的差不多。这种冷酷的现金意味着,它可以在想要的时候减少债务。
我们的观点
好消息是,马钢被证明有能力用息税前利润来支付利息支出,这让我们感到高兴,就像毛茸茸的小狗对待蹒跚学步的孩子一样。但我们必须承认,我们发现它的总负债水平产生了相反的效果。综上所述,马钢似乎能够轻松应对当前的债务水平。当然,虽然这种杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但它确实带来了更多风险,因此值得关注这一点。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。我们已经确定了1个警告信号与马钢合作,了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来看看我们的净现金成长型股票独家名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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