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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311)
Does the August share price for China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for China State Construction International Holdings
What's The Estimated Valuation?
As China State Construction International Holdings operates in the construction sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.5%. Compared to the current share price of HK$7.8, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= HK$0.5 / (7.5% – 1.6%)
= HK$8.9
SEHK:3311 Discounted Cash Flow August 9th 2022Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China State Construction International Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.220. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For China State Construction International Holdings, there are three essential aspects you should consider:
- Risks: Be aware that China State Construction International Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
- Future Earnings: How does 3311's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
中国建筑国际控股有限公司(HKG: 3311)8月份的股价是否反映了它的真正价值?今天,我们将通过计算预期的未来现金流并将其折现为今天的价值来估算股票的内在价值。这将使用贴现现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。信不信由你,正如你从我们的例子中看到的那样,要理解并不难!
但请记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多,而差价合约只是一种方法。如果你对这种估值还有一些迫切的问题,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
查看我们对中国建筑国际控股公司的最新分析
估计估值是多少?
由于中国建筑国际控股公司在建筑业开展业务,因此我们需要稍微不同的内在价值的计算方法。在这种方法中,使用每股股息(DPS),因为自由现金流难以估计,而且分析师通常不报告。除非公司将其大部分FCF作为股息支付,否则这种方法通常会低估股票的价值。使用了 “戈登增长模型”,该模型仅假设股息支付将永远以可持续的增长率增长。预计股息将以相当于10年期国债收益率1.6%的5年平均增长率增长。然后,我们将这个数字折扣为今天的价值,股本成本为7.5%。与目前的7.8港元股价相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价折扣了13%。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——移动几度然后进入另一个星系。请记住这一点。
每股价值 = 每股预期股息/(折现率-永久增长率)
= 0.5 港元/ (7.5% — 1.6%)
= 8.9 港元
香港交易所:3311 2022 年 8 月 9 日贴现现金流重要假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面描述公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将中国建筑国际控股公司视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这次计算中,我们使用了 7.5%,这是基于杠杆测试版1.220。与整个市场相比,Beta是衡量股票波动率的指标。我们的测试值来自全球可比公司的行业平均测试值,施加的限制在0.8到2.0之间,对于稳定的业务而言,这是一个合理的范围。
继续前进:
就建立投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,理想情况下,它不会是你为公司仔细审查的唯一分析结果。使用DCF模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,它应该被视为指导 “这只股票需要哪些假设成真才能被低估/高估?”例如,公司股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于中国建筑国际控股集团来说,您应该考虑三个基本方面:
- 风险: 请注意,中国建筑国际控股集团的表现 我们的投资分析中有两个警告信号 ,其中 1 个不容忽视...
- 未来收益: 与同行和整个市场相比,3311的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他稳健的业务: 低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过往表现是强劲业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们的互动式具有坚实商业基础的股票清单,看看是否还有其他公司你可能没有考虑过!
PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对联交所的每只股票进行折扣现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算方法,请在此处搜索。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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