One thing we could say about the analysts on MGM China Holdings Limited (HKG:2282) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the latest downgrade, the 16 analysts covering MGM China Holdings provided consensus estimates of HK$7.8b revenue in 2022, which would reflect a discernible 2.0% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 8.0% to HK$1.09 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of HK$9.1b and HK$0.98 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for MGM China Holdings
SEHK:2282 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 8th 2022
There was no major change to the consensus price target of HK$5.49, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MGM China Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$9.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$3.60. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MGM China Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would also point out that the forecast 4.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 16% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 25% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect MGM China Holdings to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at MGM China Holdings. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on MGM China Holdings after the downgrade.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MGM China Holdings analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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关于分析师们,我们可以说一件事美高梅中国控股有限公司(HKG:2282)-他们并不乐观,刚刚对该组织的近期(法定)预测做出了重大负面修订。营收和每股收益(EPS)预期都遭到了下调,这表明分析师对这项业务的态度已经恶化到了极点。
在最近一次下调评级后,追踪米高梅中国控股的16位分析师提供了对2022年收入78亿港元的一致估计,这将反映出该公司过去12个月的销售额明显下降了2.0%。预计亏损将收窄8.0%,至每股1.09港元。然而,在此次预估更新之前,市场的普遍预期是营收为91亿港元,每股亏损0.98港元。因此,在最近的共识更新之后,人们的观点发生了相当大的变化,分析师们大幅下调了收入预期,同时预计每股亏损将会增加。
查看我们对米高梅中国控股的最新分析
联交所:2282盈利及收入增长2022年8月8日
市场普遍预期的5.49港元目标价没有发生重大变化,表明该业务的表现与预期大体一致,尽管每股收益预期较低。然而,这并不是我们可以从这些数据中得出的唯一结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的价格目标时,也喜欢考虑预期中的价差。最乐观的美高梅中国控股分析师给出的目标价为每股9.10港元,而最悲观的分析师认为目标价为3.6港元。正如你可以看到的,估计的范围很大,最低的估值不到最乐观估计的一半,这表明对于这项业务将如何表现,存在一些强烈的分歧。考虑到这一点,我们不会过于依赖共识目标价,因为这只是一个平均值,分析师显然对该业务有一些严重的分歧。
这些估计很有趣,但在观察预测如何与米高梅中国控股公司过去的表现以及与同行业同行进行比较时,画出一些更宽泛的笔触可能是有用的。我们还想指出的是,截至2022年底的年化收入下降4.0%的预测好于历史趋势,过去五年,历史趋势使收入每年下降16%,而分析师对更广泛行业公司的预测表明,收入(总计)预计每年增长25%。因此,很明显,尽管米高梅中国控股的收入确实在下降,但分析师们也预计米高梅中国控股将比整个行业遭受更严重的打击。
底线
此次评级下调最值得注意的一点是,市场普遍上调了今年的亏损预期,这表明米高梅中国控股有限公司可能并不是一帆风顺。令人遗憾的是,他们还下调了收入预期,最新预测表明,该业务的销售增长将低于更广泛的市场。我们还惊讶地看到,目标价格没有变化。不过,不断恶化的商业环境(假设预测准确!)可以成为股价的领先指标,因此我们不会责怪投资者在米高梅评级下调后对米高梅中国控股更加谨慎。
话虽如此,该公司盈利的长期轨迹比明年重要得多。我们有多位米高梅中国控股分析师对2024年的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
当然,看到公司管理层投资大笔资金投资一只股票,就像知道分析师是否在下调他们的预期一样有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下这个免费内部人士正在买入的股票清单。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。