It's been a pretty great week for Vital Farms, Inc. (NASDAQ:VITL) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$13.54 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.1% to hit US$83m. Vital Farms also reported a statutory profit of US$0.0047, which was a nice improvement from the loss that the analysts were predicting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Vital Farms
NasdaqGM:VITL Earnings and Revenue Growth August 7th 2022
Following the latest results, Vital Farms' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$342.8m in 2022. This would be a decent 14% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Vital Farms forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.02 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$342.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.038 in 2022. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at US$17.21, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vital Farms at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vital Farms' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Vital Farms'historical trends, as the 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 is roughly in line with the 33% annual revenue growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that Vital Farms is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vital Farms. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.21, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vital Farms going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
这是非常棒的一周生命农场,Inc.纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:VITL)股价在其最新季度业绩公布后的一周内飙升15%,至13.54美元。总体来说,这是一个积极的结果,收入超过预期4.1%,达到8300万美元。VITAL Farm还公布了0.0047美元的法定利润,与分析师预测的亏损相比,这是一个很好的改善。在业绩公布后,分析师们更新了他们的收益模型,如果他们认为公司的前景发生了巨大变化,还是一切照旧,那将是一件好事。我们认为,读者会发现看到分析师对明年最新(法定)盈利后的预测会很有趣。
查看我们对重要农场的最新分析
NasdaqGM:VITL收益和收入增长2022年8月7日
根据最新的业绩,VITAL Farm的七位分析师现在预测,2022年的收入将达到3.428亿美元。与过去12个月相比,这将是相当不错的14%的销售额增长。预计收益将有所改善,VITAL Farm预计将公布每股0.02美元的法定利润。在这份收益报告之前,分析师们一直预测2022年收入为3.427亿美元,每股收益为0.038美元。在最新财报公布后,分析师们似乎变得更加悲观。尽管营收预期没有变化,但每股收益预期大幅下调。
一致的目标价稳定在17.21美元,分析师似乎投票认为,在可预见的未来,他们较低的预期收益预计不会导致较低的股价。看看分析师估计的范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异也可能是有启发意义的。目前,最乐观的分析师对重要农场的估值为每股23.00美元,而最悲观的分析师将其估值为14.00美元。这表明,投资者的估值仍存在一定的差异性,但分析师似乎并不完全对该股持不同看法,好像这可能是一种成功或失败的局面。
这些估计很有趣,但当看到预测与Val Farm过去的表现和同行业同行的预测进行比较时,描绘一些更宽泛的笔触可能会很有用。从最新的估计中,我们可以推断,预测预计重要农场的历史趋势将继续下去,因为截至2022年底的29%的年化收入增长与过去一年33%的年收入增长大致一致。相比之下,我们的数据显示,类似行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年2.5%的速度增长。因此,很明显,重要农场的增长速度预计将远远快于其行业。
底线
最大的担忧是,分析师们下调了每股收益预期,这表明至关重要的农场可能面临业务逆风。幸运的是,他们还再次确认了营收数据,这表明销售额与预期相符--我们的数据表明,营收增长速度预计将快于整个行业。共识价格目标持稳于17.21美元,最新估计不足以对他们的价格目标产生影响。
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为,投资者需要考虑的更长期的业务轨迹要重要得多。在Simply Wall St.,我们有一系列分析师对2024年重要农场的预测,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
另一件需要考虑的事情是,管理层和董事最近是否一直在买入或卖出股票。我们在我们的平台上提供了过去12个月所有公开市场股票交易的概述,此处。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。