It's shaping up to be a tough period for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:VNDA), which a week ago released some disappointing second-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$64m revenue coming in 3.9% lower than what the analystexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.05 missed the mark badly, arriving some 58% below what was expected. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Vanda Pharmaceuticals
NasdaqGM:VNDA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 6th 2022
Following last week's earnings report, Vanda Pharmaceuticals' sole analyst are forecasting 2022 revenues to be US$264.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 7.5% to US$0.18 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$267.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.30 in 2022. The analyst seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 55% to US$10.00, with the analyst clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Vanda Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Vanda Pharmaceuticals.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vanda Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2024, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Vanda Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of.
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这将是一段艰难的时期万达制药公司。纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:VNDA)一周前发布了一些令人失望的第二季度业绩,可能会对市场如何看待该股产生显著影响。结果显示,盈利低于预期,6400万美元的收入比分析师预期的低3.9%。法定每股收益(EPS)为0.05美元,严重低于预期,比预期低约58%。结果公布后,这位分析师更新了他们的收益模型,如果他们认为公司的前景发生了巨大变化,还是一切照旧,那将是一件好事。我们认为,读者会发现,分析师对明年最新的(法定)盈利预测会很有趣。
查看我们对万达制药的最新分析
NasdaqGM:VNDA收益和收入增长2022年8月6日
在上周的收益报告之后,Vanda PharmPharmticals的唯一分析师预测2022年收入将达到2.649亿美元,与过去12个月大致一致。预计同期法定每股收益将下降7.5%,至0.18美元。在这份收益报告之前,分析师一直预测2022年收入为2.673亿美元,每股收益(EPS)为0.30美元。在最新结果公布后,这位分析师似乎变得更加悲观。虽然营收预期没有变化,但每股收益预期出现了相当严重的下调。
可能会令人惊讶的是,共识目标价下跌55%,至10.00美元,分析师明确将较低的预期收益与股价表现联系在一起。
了解这些预测的更多背景信息的一种方法是,看看它们与过去的表现如何比较,以及同行业的其他公司的表现如何。我们要强调的是,万达制药的收入增长预计将放缓,截至2022年底的预测年化增长率为1.7%,远低于历史上每年11%的增长率。过去五年的增长。相比之下,分析师覆盖的该行业其他公司的收入预计将以每年14%的速度增长。因此,很明显,虽然收入增长预计将放缓,但整个行业的增长速度预计也将快于万达制药。
底线
最重要的是,这位分析师下调了他们的每股收益预期,表明在这些结果公布后,市场情绪明显下降。从积极的一面来看,营收预期没有重大变化;尽管预测意味着营收表现将逊于整个行业。此外,分析师还下调了他们的目标价,这表明最新消息导致人们对该业务的内在价值更加悲观。
考虑到这一点,我们不会太快得出关于万达制药的结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润重要得多。至少有一位分析师提供了对2024年的预测,这可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
然而,在你太兴奋之前,我们已经发现万达制药的2个警告信号这一点你应该知道。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。