Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Alibaba Group Holding will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.
After the upgrade, the 49 analysts covering Alibaba Group Holding are now predicting revenues of CN¥919b in 2023. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 50% to CN¥35.02. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥921b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥35.56 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business.
View our latest analysis for Alibaba Group Holding
NYSE:BABA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 5th 2022
Analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥1,049, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alibaba Group Holding at CN¥230 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥115. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests the analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alibaba Group Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Alibaba Group Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 31% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alibaba Group Holding.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from this consensus update is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data indicates that Alibaba Group Holding's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at Alibaba Group Holding.
Using these estimates as a starting point, we've run a discounted cash flow calculation (DCF) on Alibaba Group Holding that suggests the company could be somewhat undervalued. You can learn more about our valuation methodology on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司阿里巴巴(NYSE:Kleiner Perkins Caufield&Byers)股东今天将有理由微笑,分析师们大幅上调了今年的预测。分析师们大幅增加了他们的收入数字,认为阿里巴巴-SW集团控股的销售额将大大超过他们之前的预期。
升级后,追踪阿里巴巴-SW集团控股的49名分析师现在预测,2023年收入将达到9190亿元人民币。如果达到,这将反映出与过去12个月相比,销售额合理地提高了7.7%。每股收益预计将跃升50%,至35.02加元。在此次更新之前,分析师一直预测2023年收入为9210亿加元,每股收益为35.56元。因此,很明显,尽管分析师们更新了他们的估计,但对这项业务的预期并没有发生重大变化。
查看我们对阿里巴巴-SW集团控股的最新分析
纽约证券交易所:阿里巴巴收益和收入增长2022年8月5日
分析师再次确认了1,049元的目标价,表明该业务执行良好,符合预期。然而,盯着一个单一的价格目标可能是不明智的,因为共识目标实际上是分析师价格目标的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢看看预估区间,看看对该公司的估值是否存在分歧意见。目前,最乐观的分析师对阿里巴巴-SW集团的估值为每股230元人民币,而最悲观的分析师估值为115元人民币。尽管如此,由于估值范围如此之小,这表明分析师们对他们认为公司的价值有相当好的了解。
这些估计很有趣,但在看看预测与阿里巴巴-SW集团过去的表现以及同行业同行的预测如何比较时,画出一些更宽泛的笔触可能会很有用。我们要强调的是,阿里巴巴-SW集团控股的收入增长预计将放缓,截至2023年底的预测年化增长率为10%,远低于历史上每年31%的增长率。过去五年的增长。与该行业的其他公司(与分析师的预测)进行比较,这些公司的总收入预计每年将增长13%。因此,很明显,虽然收入增长预计将放缓,但整个行业的增长速度预计也将快于阿里巴巴-SW集团。
底线
从这一共识更新中最明显的结论是,近期该业务的前景没有重大变化,分析师们保持每股收益稳定,与之前的估计一致。幸运的是,分析师们也再次确认了他们的营收预期,表明销售额与预期相符--尽管我们的数据显示,阿里巴巴-SW集团控股的营收增长预计将低于整体市场。鉴于分析师似乎预计销售渠道将出现实质性改善,现在可能是重新审视阿里巴巴-SW集团控股的合适时机。
以这些估计为起点,我们对阿里巴巴-SW集团进行了现金流贴现计算,表明该公司的价值可能被低估了。您可以在我们的平台上了解更多关于我们的估值方法的信息。
当然,看到公司管理层投资大笔资金投资一只股票,就像知道分析师是否在上调他们的预期一样有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下这个免费内部人士正在买入的股票清单。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。