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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Legend Holdings Corporation (HKG:3396)
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Legend Holdings Corporation (HKG:3396)
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Legend Holdings Corporation (HKG:3396) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Legend Holdings
Is Legend Holdings Fairly Valued?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥5.11b | CN¥3.00b | CN¥2.15b | CN¥1.73b | CN¥1.51b | CN¥1.38b | CN¥1.30b | CN¥1.25b | CN¥1.23b | CN¥1.22b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -59.53% | Est @ -41.2% | Est @ -28.38% | Est @ -19.4% | Est @ -13.11% | Est @ -8.72% | Est @ -5.64% | Est @ -3.48% | Est @ -1.97% | Est @ -0.91% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 11% | CN¥4.6k | CN¥2.4k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.1k | CN¥877 | CN¥718 | CN¥608 | CN¥527 | CN¥464 | CN¥412 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥13b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.2b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (11%– 1.6%) = CN¥13b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥13b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= CN¥4.2b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥18b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$8.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SEHK:3396 Discounted Cash Flow August 2nd 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Legend Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Legend Holdings, there are three further factors you should explore:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Legend Holdings (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
- Future Earnings: How does 3396's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,通过预测联想控股公司(HKG:3396)未来的现金流并将其折现为今天的价值,来评估其作为投资机会的吸引力。实现这一点的一种方法是使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。它真的没有那么多东西,尽管它可能看起来相当复杂。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
查看我们对联想控股的最新分析
联想控股的估值是否公平?
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元51.1亿元 | CN人民币3.0亿元 | CN元21.5亿元 | 净额17.3亿元 | 净额15.1亿元 | CN元13.8亿元 | CN人民币13.亿元 | CN元12.5亿元 | CN元12.3亿元 | CN元12.2亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@-59.53% | Est@-41.2% | Est@-28.38% | Est@-19.4% | Est@-13.11% | Est@-8.72% | Est@-5.64% | Est@-3.48% | Est@-1.97% | Est@-0.91% |
现值(CN元,百万)折现@11% | CN元4.6K | CN元2.4K | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.1K | CN元877元 | CN元718元 | CN元608元 | CN元527元 | CN元464元 | CN元412元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元130亿元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用11%的权益成本,将未来现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.2b×(1+1.6%)?(11%-1.6%)=CN元13b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元130亿?(1+11%)10=CN元42亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总权益价值,在本例中为人民币180亿元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前8.7港元的股价相比,该公司在撰写本文时似乎接近公允价值。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
联交所:3396贴现现金流2022年8月2日重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将联想控股视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了11%,这是基于杠杆率为2.000的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一一项分析。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。对于联想控股来说,还有三个因素值得你去探索:
- 风险例如,考虑一下一直存在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了两个警告信号与联想控股(至少有一家是相关的),了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
- 未来收益:3396的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只香港股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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