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An Intrinsic Calculation For Triton International Limited (NYSE:TRTN) Suggests It's 45% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Triton International Limited (NYSE:TRTN) Suggests It's 45% Undervalued
How far off is Triton International Limited (NYSE:TRTN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Triton International
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$260.4m | US$384.0m | US$513.7m | US$638.2m | US$750.2m | US$846.7m | US$927.9m | US$995.6m | US$1.05b | US$1.10b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 66.94% | Est @ 47.44% | Est @ 33.79% | Est @ 24.24% | Est @ 17.55% | Est @ 12.87% | Est @ 9.59% | Est @ 7.29% | Est @ 5.69% | Est @ 4.56% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12% | US$232 | US$306 | US$365 | US$404 | US$424 | US$427 | US$417 | US$399 | US$376 | US$351 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.7b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.1b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (12%– 1.9%) = US$11b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= US$3.5b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$7.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$64.1, the company appears quite good value at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:TRTN Discounted Cash Flow August 1st 2022The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Triton International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Triton International, we've put together three further items you should further examine:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Triton International has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does TRTN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Triton International Limited(纽约证券交易所代码:TRTN)距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过将公司预测的未来现金流折现回今天的价值来看看股票的定价是否公平。这将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型来实现。在你认为你将无法理解它之前,只需继续阅读!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对Triton International的最新分析
仔细研究这些数字
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 2.604亿美元 | 3.84亿美元 | 5.137亿美元 | 6.382亿美元 | 7.502亿美元 | 8.467亿美元 | 9.279亿美元 | 9.956亿美元 | 10.5亿美元 | 11亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@66.94% | Est@47.44% | Est@33.79% | Est@24.24% | Est@17.55% | Est@12.87% | Est@9.59% | Est@7.29% | Est@5.69% | Est@4.56% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@12% | 232美元 | 306美元 | 365美元 | 404美元 | 424美元 | 427美元 | 417美元 | 399美元 | 376美元 | 351美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=37亿美元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.9%的5年平均水平。我们以12%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=11亿美元×(1+1.9%)?(12%-1.9%)=110亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=110亿美元?(1+12%)10=35亿美元
那么,总价值或权益价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流的现值为72亿美元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。与目前64.1美元的股价相比,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,较目前的股价有45%的折让。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
纽约证券交易所:TRTN贴现现金流2022年8月1日假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Triton International视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了12%,这是基于杠杆率为2.000的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
虽然很重要,但理想情况下,贴现现金流计算不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于Triton International,我们已经列出了三个您应该进一步研究的项目:
- 风险:例如,承担风险-Triton International有3个警示标志(还有一点很重要)我们认为你应该知道。
- 未来收益:TRTN的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对纽约证交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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