Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited (HKG:98) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 18% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been pleasing. It has returned a market beating 52% in that time. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 31% decline over the last twelve months.
In light of the stock dropping 10% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
See our latest analysis for Xingfa Aluminium Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Xingfa Aluminium Holdings achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 24% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 9% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 3.46.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
SEHK:98 Earnings Per Share Growth July 28th 2022
Dive deeper into Xingfa Aluminium Holdings' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Xingfa Aluminium Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Xingfa Aluminium Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was 85%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 15% in the twelve months, Xingfa Aluminium Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 25% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 13%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Xingfa Aluminium Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
We will like Xingfa Aluminium Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
兴发铝业集团有限公司(HKG:98)股东在看到上个季度股价下跌18%后可能会感到担忧。但这并不能改变过去五年回报一直令人满意的事实。在此期间,它的市场回报率超过了52%。不幸的是,并不是所有的股东都会长期持有它,所以请考虑一下那些在过去12个月中陷入31%跌幅的人。
鉴于该公司股价在过去一周下跌了10%,我们希望调查更长期的情况,看看基本面因素是否是该公司五年来正回报的驱动因素。
查看我们对兴发铝业控股的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔的超级投资者沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价并不总是理性地反映一家企业的价值。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价随时间的变化,我们可以感受到投资者对一家公司的态度随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化。
在股价增长的五年中,兴发铝业实现了每股收益(EPS)每年24%的复合增长。每股收益的增长比同期股价9%的年涨幅更令人印象深刻。因此,市场似乎对该公司变得相对悲观。这种谨慎的情绪反映在(相当低的)市盈率3.46。
您可以在下面看到EPS是如何随着时间的推移而变化的(通过单击图像来了解确切的值)。
联交所:98每股盈利增长2022年7月28日
通过查看兴发铝业控股的收益、收入和现金流的互动图表,更深入地了解兴发铝业控股的关键指标。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。我们注意到,兴发铝业控股过去5年的总回报率为85%,好于上述股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异是没有好处的!
不同的视角
虽然大盘在过去12个月里下跌了约15%,但兴发铝业控股的股东表现更糟,下跌了25%(甚至包括股息)。然而,这可能只是因为股价受到了更广泛的市场紧张情绪的影响。也许有必要关注基本面,以防出现良机。较长期的投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得13%的收益。最近的抛售可能是一个机会,因此可能值得查看基本面数据,以寻找长期增长趋势的迹象。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了1个警告信号与兴发铝业控股公司合作,了解他们应该是你投资过程的一部分。
如果我们看到一些大的内部收购,我们会更喜欢兴发铝业控股公司。在我们等待的时候,看看这个免费最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。