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Did the White House just change the definition of a recession? Here's what Michael Burry thinks

Did the White House just change the definition of a recession? Here's what Michael Burry thinks

白宫刚刚改变了衰退的定义吗?以下是迈克尔·伯里的想法
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/07/25 19:35

The White House shared a blog post explaining whether the U.S. economy was in a recession. The blog post may have changed the underlying factors of what considerations make a recession happen, something that caught the attention of noted investor Michael Burry.

白宫分享了一篇博客文章,解释了美国经济是否陷入衰退。这篇博客文章可能改变了导致经济衰退的根本因素,这引起了知名投资者的注意迈克尔·伯里。

What Happened: The White House blog post titled "How do economists determine whether the economy is in a recession" laid out some new terminology for what constitutes a recession.

发生的事情:这篇题为《经济学家如何判断经济是否陷入衰退》的白宫博文为经济衰退的定义提供了一些新的术语。

While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle." 

-the post reads.

虽然一些人坚持认为,实际GDP连续两个季度下降构成衰退,但这既不是官方定义,也不是经济学家评估商业周期状态的方式。

-帖子上写着。

The post from the White House went on to further provide a prediction that a recession for the U.S. is unlikely under the new terminology.

白宫的这篇帖子进一步预测,在新的术语下,美国不太可能陷入衰退。

"It is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year – even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter – indicates a recession."

“今年第一季GDP下滑--即使第二季GDP再度下滑--也不太可能预示经济衰退.”

Investor Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame lashed out at the White House for changing the wording.

因《大空头》成名的投资人迈克尔·伯里猛烈抨击白宫改变措辞。

"The White House would like you to redefine a recession as one in which consumers are not borrowing on credit cards to pay for inflation, and neither is the labor force inadequate for the size of the economy," Burry said.

“白宫希望你们将经济衰退重新定义为消费者没有通过信用卡借款来支付通胀,劳动力也不足以满足经济规模,”Burry说。

Why It's Important: Burry underlined the line from the White House saying it is unlikely the data indicates a recession in his tweet.

为什么它很重要:Burry在他的推文中强调了白宫的这句话,他说数据不太可能表明经济衰退。

Burry also previewed how the new definition comes ahead of a key data release.

Burry还预览了新定义是如何在关键数据发布之前发布的。

GDP out Thursday, not that there's anything wrong with that." 

-Burry said.

周四公布的GDP,并不是说这有什么错。

--伯里说。

Searches for the word recession have increased, as Benzinga previously reported. Some analysts and economic experts have pointed to the U.S. already being in a recession.

正如Benzinga之前报道的那样,对经济衰退一词的搜索量有所增加。一些分析师和经济专家指出,美国已经陷入衰退。

"Notably, there are no fixed rules or thresholds that trigger a determination of decline," the blog post also said, referencing the phrasing of "a significant decline in economic activity."

“值得注意的是,没有固定的规则或门槛来触发衰退的判断,”这篇博客文章还说,他指的是“经济活动显著下滑”的说法。

While phrasing and terminology for a recession has been up in the air for some time, the new wording from the White House could make it even harder to determine when the official definition has been reached.

虽然经济衰退的措辞和术语已经悬而未决了一段时间,但白宫的新措辞可能会让人们更难确定何时达到了官方定义。

Burry's point to consumers using credit cards to fight off inflation hits at the fact that inflation has risen significantly in the United States, something the White House can't argue against even with new wording.

Burry的观点是,消费者使用信用卡来抵御通胀,打击了美国通胀大幅上升的事实,即使使用新的措辞,白宫也无法对此提出异议。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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