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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Swire Properties Limited (HKG:1972)
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Swire Properties Limited (HKG:1972)
How far off is Swire Properties Limited (HKG:1972) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Swire Properties
Crunching the numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) | HK$6.04b | HK$7.56b | HK$15.6b | HK$10.8b | HK$8.32b | HK$7.02b | HK$6.28b | HK$5.85b | HK$5.59b | HK$5.45b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -23.03% | Est @ -15.65% | Est @ -10.49% | Est @ -6.88% | Est @ -4.35% | Est @ -2.58% |
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0% | HK$5.6k | HK$6.6k | HK$12.8k | HK$8.3k | HK$5.9k | HK$4.7k | HK$3.9k | HK$3.4k | HK$3.1k | HK$2.8k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$57b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$5.4b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (7.0%– 1.6%) = HK$102b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$102b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= HK$52b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$109b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$18.6, the company appears about fair value at a 0.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SEHK:1972 Discounted Cash Flow July 21st 2022The assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Swire Properties as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.118. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Swire Properties, we've put together three essential aspects you should further research:
- Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Swire Properties you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does 1972's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
太古地产股份有限公司(香港:1972)距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过提取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到现值,来看看股票的定价是否公平。在这种情况下,我们将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。不要被行话吓跑了,它背后的数学实际上是相当简单的。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对太古地产的最新分析
仔细研究这些数字
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(港币,百万元) | 60.4亿港元 | 港币75.6亿元 | 港币156亿元 | 港币108亿元 | 港币83.2亿元 | 港币70.2亿元 | 62.8亿港元 | 港币58.5亿元 | 55.9亿港元 | 港币54.5亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x4 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@-23.03% | Est@-15.65% | Est@-10.49% | Est@-6.88% | Est@-4.35% | Est@-2.58% |
现值(港币,百万元)贴现@7.0% | 港币560万元 | 港币6.6万元 | 港币1280万元 | 港币830万元 | 港币590万元 | 港币470万元 | 港币390万元 | 港币340万元 | 港币310万元 | 港币28万元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=570亿港元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我们以7.0%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=港币54亿×(1+1.6%)?(7.0%-1.6%)=港币102亿
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=港币102B(1+7.0%)10=520亿港元
因此,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为1090亿港元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前18.6港元的股价相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价有0.5%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
联交所:1972贴现现金流2022年7月21日假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将太古地产视为潜在股东,我们使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是考虑债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了7.0%,这是基于杠杆率为1.118的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。对于太古地产,我们总结了你应该进一步研究的三个基本方面:
- 风险:例如,我们已经发现了太古地产的1个警示标志你应该意识到。
- 未来收益:1972年的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只香港股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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