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Does This Valuation Of China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (SHSE:601186) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?
Does This Valuation Of China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (SHSE:601186) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?
Does the July share price for China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (SHSE:601186) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out our latest analysis for China Railway Construction
The model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥11.9b | CN¥10.4b | CN¥9.64b | CN¥9.23b | CN¥9.05b | CN¥9.01b | CN¥9.07b | CN¥9.20b | CN¥9.38b | CN¥9.60b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ -7.46% | Est @ -4.25% | Est @ -2% | Est @ -0.43% | Est @ 0.67% | Est @ 1.44% | Est @ 1.98% | Est @ 2.36% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 13% | CN¥10.5k | CN¥8.1k | CN¥6.7k | CN¥5.6k | CN¥4.9k | CN¥4.3k | CN¥3.8k | CN¥3.4k | CN¥3.1k | CN¥2.8k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥53b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥9.6b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (13%– 3.2%) = CN¥100b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥100b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= CN¥29b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥83b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥7.8, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SHSE:601186 Discounted Cash Flow July 20th 2022The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China Railway Construction as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For China Railway Construction, we've compiled three essential elements you should further research:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for China Railway Construction (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 601186's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
中国铁建股份有限公司(上海证券交易所代码:601186)7月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过提取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到今天的价值来估计股票的内在价值。为此,我们将利用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
不过请记住,有很多方法可以评估一家公司的价值,贴现现金流只是其中一种方法。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
查看我们对中国铁建的最新分析
模型
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | 净额119亿元 | 净额104亿元 | 净额96.4亿元 | CN元92.3亿元 | CN元90.5亿元 | 净额90.1亿元 | 净额90.7亿元 | CN元92亿元 | 净额93.8亿元 | CN人民币96.亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x2 | 分析师x2 | Est@-7.46% | Est@-4.25% | Est@-2% | Est@-0.43% | Est@0.67% | Est@1.44% | Est@1.98% | Est@2.36% |
折现现值(CN元,百万元)@13% | CN元10.5K | CN元8.1K | CN元6.7K | CN元5.6K | CN元4.9K | CN元4.3K | CN元3.8K元 | CN元3.4K元 | CN元3.1K | CN元2.8K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元530亿元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(3.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用13%的权益成本,将未来现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元9.6b×(1+3.2%)?(13%-3.2%)=CN元100b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=cn元100b?(1+13%)10=人民币290亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股权价值,在本例中为830亿元人民币。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前7.8元的股价相比,在撰写本文时,该公司的估值似乎略有高估。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
上海证交所:601186贴现现金流2022年7月20日假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将中国铁建视为潜在股东,折现率使用的是股权成本,而不是占债务的资本成本(加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了13%,这是基于杠杆率为2.000的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它只是你需要为一家公司评估的众多因素之一。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。为什么内在价值低于当前股价?对于中国铁建,我们整理了三个你应该进一步研究的基本要素:
- 风险:每家公司都有,我们已经发现了中国铁建的2个警示标志(其中1个与我们坐在一起不太好!)你应该知道。
- 未来收益:601186的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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