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Things Look Grim For Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000951) After Today's Downgrade
Things Look Grim For Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000951) After Today's Downgrade
One thing we could say about the analysts on Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000951) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business. Shares are up 5.7% to CN¥13.90 in the past week. We'd be curious to see if the downgrade is enough to reverse investor sentiment on the business.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Sinotruk Jinan Truck's three analysts is for revenues of CN¥39b in 2022, which would reflect a definite 9.5% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 31% to CN¥0.62. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥46b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.78 in 2022. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Sinotruk Jinan Truck's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
View our latest analysis for Sinotruk Jinan Truck
SZSE:000951 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 19th 2022Analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥12.95, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Sinotruk Jinan Truck's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Sinotruk Jinan Truck, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥15.00 and the most bearish at CN¥10.90 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 12% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 19% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Sinotruk Jinan Truck's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Sinotruk Jinan Truck. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Sinotruk Jinan Truck's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Sinotruk Jinan Truck.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Sinotruk Jinan Truck analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关于分析师们,我们可以说一件事中国重汽济南卡车有限公司(SZSE:000951)-他们并不乐观,刚刚对他们对该组织的近期(法定)预测进行了重大负面修订。营收和每股收益(EPS)预期都遭到了下调,这表明分析师们对这项业务的态度已经恶化到了极点。过去一周,该公司股价上涨5.7%,至人民币13.90元。我们很想知道,评级下调是否足以扭转投资者对该业务的情绪。
在评级下调后,中国重汽济南卡车的三位分析师一致认为,2022年的收入将达到人民币390亿元,这将反映出与去年业绩相比,销售额肯定会下降9.5%。每股收益预计将飙升31%,至0.62加元。在这一最新更新之前,分析师一直预测2022年收入为46亿元人民币,每股收益为0.78元人民币。事实上,我们可以看到,分析师们对中国重汽济南卡车的前景要悲观得多,他们大幅下调了收入预期,并大幅下调了每股收益预期。
查看我们对中国重汽济南卡车的最新分析
深交所:2022年7月19日收益和收入增长000951分析师没有对CN12.95元的目标价做出重大调整,这表明评级下调预计不会对中国重汽济南卡车的估值产生长期影响。看看分析师估计的范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异也可能是有启发意义的。对中国重汽济南卡车有一些不同的看法,最乐观的分析师对其估值为15.00元人民币,最悲观的分析师估值为每股10.90元人民币。这些目标价表明,分析师对该业务确实有一些不同的看法,但估计的差异还不足以向我们表明,一些人押注于大获全胜或彻底失败。
了解这些预测的更多背景信息的一种方法是,看看它们与过去的表现如何比较,以及同行业的其他公司的表现如何。这些估计意味着销售预计将放缓,预计到2022年底年化收入将下降12%。这表明,与过去五年14%的年增长率相比,这一数字大幅下降。相比之下,我们的数据表明,在可预见的未来,同一行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年19%的速度增长。很明显,中国重汽济南卡车的营收预计将远远逊于整个行业。
底线
新的预估中最大的问题是,分析师下调了每股收益预估,这表明中国重汽济南卡车的业务逆风还在后头。不幸的是,分析师也下调了他们的营收预期,行业数据显示,中国重汽济南卡车的营收增速预计将低于整体市场。鉴于评级下调,目标价不变令人费解,但由于预计今年会出现严重下跌,如果投资者对中国重汽济南卡车有点警惕,我们也不会感到意外。
话虽如此,该公司盈利的长期轨迹比明年重要得多。我们有来自中国重汽济南多名卡车分析师的预测,预计将持续到2024年,你可以在我们的平台上免费看到。
当然,看到公司管理层投资大笔资金投资一只股票,就像知道分析师是否在下调他们的预期一样有用。所以你可能也想搜索一下这个免费内部人士正在买入的股票清单。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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