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We Think Sinotrans (HKG:598) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Sinotrans (HKG:598) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Sinotrans Limited (HKG:598) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Sinotrans
What Is Sinotrans's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Sinotrans had CN¥13.5b of debt, at March 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥12.4b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥1.02b.
SEHK:598 Debt to Equity History July 16th 2022A Look At Sinotrans' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Sinotrans had liabilities of CN¥26.5b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥15.0b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥12.4b in cash and CN¥19.9b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥9.17b.
Sinotrans has a market capitalization of CN¥22.6b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Sinotrans has net debt of just 0.25 times EBITDA, suggesting it could ramp leverage without breaking a sweat. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. The good news is that Sinotrans has increased its EBIT by 9.3% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Sinotrans can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Sinotrans recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 83% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
Sinotrans's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And the good news does not stop there, as its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also supports that impression! Looking at the bigger picture, we think Sinotrans's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Sinotrans that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人说,作为投资者,考虑风险的最佳方式是波动性,而不是债务,但巴菲特曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的同义词。因此,当你评估一家公司的风险有多大时,聪明的投资者似乎知道债务--通常涉及破产--是一个非常重要的因素。我们可以看到中国外运有限公司(HKG:598)确实在其业务中使用债务。但股东是否应该担心它的债务使用情况?
什么时候债务是个问题?
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。当然,许多公司利用债务为增长提供资金,没有任何负面后果。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对中国外运的最新分析
中国外运的净债务是多少?
正如你在下面看到的,截至2022年3月,中外运的债务为人民币135亿元,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表查看更多详细信息。然而,它也有124亿元现金,因此其净债务为10.2亿元。
联交所:598债转股历史2022年7月16日中国外运的负债状况一瞥
从最近的资产负债表可以看出,中外运有265亿元的负债在一年内到期,还有150亿元的负债在一年内到期。作为抵消,它有124亿加元的现金和199亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债比现金和(近期)应收账款之和高出91.7亿元。
中外运的市值为人民币226亿元,因此,如果有需要,它很可能会筹集现金来改善其资产负债表。但我们肯定希望密切关注其债务带来太大风险的迹象。
我们通过查看公司的净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),并计算其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖利息支出(利息覆盖)的容易程度,来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力的关系。这样,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量,也考虑了为其支付的利率。
中外运的净债务仅为EBITDA的0.25倍,这表明它可以毫不费力地提高杠杆率。值得注意的是,尽管它有净债务,但在过去12个月里,它实际上收到了比必须支付的更多的利息。因此,毫无疑问,这家公司可以在保持冷静的同时承担债务。好消息是,中外运的息税前利润在12个月内增长了9.3%,这应该会缓解人们对债务偿还的担忧。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定中外运能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去三年中,中外运录得相当于息税前利润83%的自由现金流,这比我们通常预期的要好。这使它处于有利的地位,如果需要的话,它可以偿还债务。
我们的观点
中外运的利息担保表明,它可以轻松处理债务,就像克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在对阵14岁以下门将的比赛中进球一样。好消息不止于此,因为它将息税前利润转换为自由现金流也支持了这种印象!从大局来看,我们认为中外运的举债似乎相当合理,我们并不担心。尽管债务确实会带来风险,但如果使用得当,它也可以带来更高的股本回报率。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。例如,我们发现中国外运的1个警告标志在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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