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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of LifeTech Scientific Corporation (HKG:1302)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of LifeTech Scientific Corporation (HKG:1302)
How far off is LifeTech Scientific Corporation (HKG:1302) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for LifeTech Scientific
The calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥290.3m | CN¥340.5m | CN¥383.3m | CN¥418.8m | CN¥447.9m | CN¥471.8m | CN¥491.5m | CN¥508.3m | CN¥522.7m | CN¥535.6m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 24.04% | Est @ 17.29% | Est @ 12.57% | Est @ 9.26% | Est @ 6.95% | Est @ 5.33% | Est @ 4.2% | Est @ 3.4% | Est @ 2.85% | Est @ 2.46% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0% | CN¥274 | CN¥303 | CN¥322 | CN¥332 | CN¥335 | CN¥333 | CN¥327 | CN¥319 | CN¥310 | CN¥300 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥536m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.0%– 1.6%) = CN¥12b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥12b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= CN¥6.9b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥10b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$2.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SEHK:1302 Discounted Cash Flow July 15th 2022Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at LifeTech Scientific as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.897. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For LifeTech Scientific, there are three further factors you should explore:
- Financial Health: Does 1302 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
生命科技公司(HKG: 1302)距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过对公司未来现金流的预测并将其折现回今天的价值,来看看该股的定价是否合理。为此,我们将利用折扣现金流(DCF)模型。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行人的理解,但它们很容易理解。
我们要提醒的是,对公司进行估值的方法有很多,就像DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优点和缺点。对于那些热衷于股票分析的人来说,你可能会对这里的Simply Wall St分析模型感兴趣。
查看我们对生命科技的最新分析
计算
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,这只是意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司的增长率可能更高,而第二阶段通常被认为具有稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估算未来十年的业务现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次公布的价值中推断了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
差价合约就是关于未来一美元的价值低于今天一美元的概念,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值折现为以今天的美元计算的估计价值:
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | CN¥290.3m | CN¥3.405 | CN¥383.3 万 | CN¥4188 | CN¥447.9 万 | CN¥4718 万 | CN¥491.5 万 | CN¥508.3 | CN¥5227 万 | CN¥5356 万 |
增长率估算来源 | 美国东部时间 @ 24.04% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 17.29% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 12.57% | 美国东部标准时间 @ 9.26% | Est @ 6.95% | 美国东部时间 @ 5.33% | 美国东部时间 @ 4.2% | 美国东部时间 @ 3.4% | 东部时间 @ 2.85% | Est @ 2.46% |
现值(人民币,百万)折扣价 @ 6.0% | CN¥274 | CN¥303 | CN¥322 | CN¥332 | CN¥335 | CN¥333 | CN¥327 | CN¥319 | CN¥310 | CN¥300 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = cn¥3.2b
在计算了最初10年期间未来现金流的现值之后,我们需要计算终端价值,该终端价值考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)来估计未来的增长。与10年的 “增长” 期相同,我们使用6.0%的股权成本,将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值。
终端价值 (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = cn¥536m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.0% — 1.6%) = cn¥12b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV)= 电视/ (1 + r)10= cn¥12b÷ (1 + 6.0%)10= cn¥69b
因此,总价值或权益价值是未来现金流现值的总和,在本例中为100亿元人民币。在最后一步中,我们将权益价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于目前的2.7港元股价,在撰写本文时,该公司似乎处于公允价值附近。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生重大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一美分。
SEHK: 1302 2022 年 7 月 15 日贴现现金流重要假设
现在,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算然后试一试。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面描述公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将LifeTech Scientific视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了 6.0%,这是基于 0.897 的杠杆测试值。与整个市场相比,Beta是衡量股票波动率的指标。我们的测试值来自全球可比公司的行业平均测试值,施加的限制在0.8到2.0之间,对于稳定的业务而言,这是一个合理的范围。
后续步骤:
尽管公司的估值很重要,但它只是公司需要评估的众多因素之一。使用DCF模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。最好你应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司股本成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于 LifeTech Scientific 来说,你还应该探索另外三个因素:
- 财务健康: 1302 的资产负债表健康吗?看看我们的免费资产负债表分析,其中包含对杠杆率和风险等关键因素的六项简单检查。
- 其他高质量的替代品: 你喜欢一个优秀的全能选手吗?浏览我们的高品质股票互动清单,了解您可能还缺少什么!
- 其他热门分析师精选: 有兴趣看看分析师在想什么吗?看看我们的分析师首选股票的互动清单,了解他们认为哪些股票的未来前景可能具有吸引力!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只香港股票的差价合约计算方法,因此,如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需在这里搜索即可。
对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧? 取得联系 直接和我们联系。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是一般性的。 我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章无意提供财务建议。 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未将最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简而言之,华尔街对上述任何股票都没有头寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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