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Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On CanSino Biologics Inc. (HKG:6185)
Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On CanSino Biologics Inc. (HKG:6185)
One thing we could say about the analysts on CanSino Biologics Inc. (HKG:6185) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.
Following the latest downgrade, the five analysts covering CanSino Biologics provided consensus estimates of CN¥2.4b revenue in 2022, which would reflect a sizeable 45% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to plunge 87% to CN¥1.09 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.13 in 2022. It looks like analyst sentiment has fallen somewhat in this update, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to earnings per share numbers as well.
Check out our latest analysis for CanSino Biologics
SEHK:6185 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 13th 2022Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥148 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on CanSino Biologics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥197 and the most bearish at CN¥135 per share. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CanSino Biologics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 55% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 133% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - CanSino Biologics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for CanSino Biologics. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on CanSino Biologics after today.
After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with CanSino Biologics' business, like concerns around earnings quality. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 1 other flag we've identified.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
关于分析师们,我们可以说一件事坎西诺生物公司。(HKG:6185)-他们并不乐观,刚刚对该组织的近期(法定)预测做出了重大负面修订。营收预期大幅下调,因为分析师发出前景较弱的信号--或许这是一个迹象,表明投资者也应该降低预期。
在最近一次下调评级后,负责嘉信生物的五位分析师提供了对2022年人民币24亿元收入的一致估计,这将反映出该公司在过去12个月的销售额大幅下降了45%。预计同期法定每股收益将暴跌87%,至1.09加元。此前,分析师一直在预测2022年的收入为人民币27亿元,每股收益为人民币1.13元。在这一最新数据中,分析师的信心似乎有所下降,营收预期大幅下调,每股收益数据也略有下调。
查看我们对中信生物的最新分析
联交所:6185盈利及收入增长2022年7月13日尽管下调了预期收益,但CN 148元的目标价并没有发生真正的变化,这表明分析师们认为这些变化对其内在价值没有重大影响。不过,还有另一种方式来考虑价格目标,那就是看看分析师提出的价格目标的范围,因为广泛的估计可能表明,对企业可能出现的结果有不同的看法。对佳信生物有一些不同的看法,最乐观的分析师对其估值为197元人民币,最悲观的分析师估值为每股135元人民币。这表明,投资者的预期仍存在一定的差异,但分析师似乎并不是对该股的看法完全不同,好像这可能是一种成功或失败的局面。
这些估计很有趣,但在看到预测如何与佳华生物过去的表现和同行业同行进行比较时,勾勒出一些更宽泛的笔触可能是有用的。我们要强调的是,销售预计将逆转,预计到2022年底,年化收入将下降55%。与过去三年133%的历史增长率相比,这是一个显著的变化。相比之下,我们的数据表明,在可预见的未来,同一行业的其他公司(有分析师覆盖)的收入预计将以每年13%的速度增长。因此,尽管预计其营收将萎缩,但这片乌云并没有带来一线希望--中信生物预计将落后于整个行业。
底线
新的预估中最大的问题是,分析师下调了每股收益预估,这表明佳信生物未来将面临业务逆风。令人遗憾的是,他们还下调了收入预期,最新预测表明,该业务的销售增长将低于更广泛的市场。通常情况下,一次评级下调就会引发一连串的削减,特别是在一个行业正在衰落的情况下。因此,如果市场在今天之后对佳华生物变得更加谨慎,我们也不会感到意外。
在这样的降级之后,很明显之前的预测过于乐观了。此外,我们还发现了佳信生物业务可能存在的几个问题,比如对盈利质量的担忧。欲了解更多信息,您可以单击此处了解这面旗帜和我们已经确定的其他1面旗帜。
搜索有趣的公司的另一种方式可能是到达拐点是跟踪管理层是在买入还是在卖出,我们的免费内部人士正在收购的成长型公司名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
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