Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Sinofert Holdings Limited (HKG:297) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 29%. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 18%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 14% over three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 21% in the last three months.
After losing 5.4% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
Check out our latest analysis for Sinofert Holdings
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Even though the Sinofert Holdings share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
Sinofert Holdings' dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
SEHK:297 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 12th 2022
We know that Sinofert Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Sinofert Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Sinofert Holdings, it has a TSR of -26% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Sinofert Holdings shareholders are down 26% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 18%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Sinofert Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
被动投资指数基金是确保你自己的回报与整体市场大致匹配的好方法。积极投资者的目标是买入表现远远好于大盘的股票--但在这个过程中,他们面临表现不佳的风险。这种下行风险通过以下方式实现中化集团有限公司(HKG:297)过去一年,随着股价下跌29%,该公司股价下跌了29%。这明显低于约18%的市场跌幅。另一方面,股票实际上是向上三年内增长14%。股价最近加速下跌,在过去三个月里下跌了21%。
在过去一周下跌5.4%后,有必要调查一下该公司的基本面,看看我们可以从过去的表现中推断出什么。
查看我们对中化控股的最新分析
不可否认,市场有时是有效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
尽管中化集团的股价在过去一年里有所下降,但其每股收益实际上有所改善。当然,这种情况可能会暴露出之前对增长的过度乐观。
令人惊讶的是,尽管每股收益有所改善,但股价却下跌了这么多。但我们可能会发现一些不同的衡量标准可以更好地解释股价走势。
中化控股的股息在我们看来似乎是健康的,因此我们怀疑收益率是否令市场担忧。从我们看到的情况来看,营收相当持平,所以这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。当然,除非市场预期收入会上升。
下图描述了收益和收入随时间的变化(通过单击图像来揭示确切的价值)。
联交所:2022年7月12日盈利及收入增长297
我们知道中化集团最近提高了利润,但未来会是什么样子呢?如果你正在考虑购买或出售中化集团的股票,你应该看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。以中化控股为例,其最近一年的总资产收益率为-26%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
我们遗憾地报告,中化控股的股东今年以来下降了26%(即使包括股息)。不幸的是,这比大盘18%的跌幅还要糟糕。话虽如此,在下跌的市场中,一些股票不可避免地会被超卖。关键是要密切关注基本面的发展。较长期的投资者不会如此沮丧,因为他们在五年内每年会获得3%的收益。如果基本面数据继续显示长期可持续增长,当前的抛售可能是一个值得考虑的机会。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。即便如此,请注意,中化控股正在展示在我们的投资分析中出现1个警告信号,你应该知道关于……
如果你像我一样,你会的不想怀念这一切吗?免费内部人士正在收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。