Ditch the Losing Game in Cannabis Stocks for Much Greener Pastures
Ditch the Losing Game in Cannabis Stocks for Much Greener Pastures
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
InvestorPlace-股票市场新闻，股票建议和交易提示
In our flagship investment research advisory Innovation Investor, we spend a lot of time talking about the technological megatrends that will reshape our lives over the next few years and generate enormous economic value for their investors along the way.
在我们的旗舰投资研究咨询中 创新投资者，我们花了很多时间谈论技术大趋势，这些大趋势将在未来几年内重塑我们的生活，并在此过程中为他们的投资者创造巨大的经济价值。
We call those world-changing megatrends. And we believe investing in the best companies in them is the greatest way to generate excellent multi-year returns.
我们称之为那些 改变世界的大趋势。而且我们相信，投资其中最好的公司是产生丰厚多年回报的最佳方式。
Today, however, I'd like to talk about something else — the opposite, in fact. I want to talk about a technological trend that some think is a world-changing megatrend. But it's actually little more than a passing fad…
但是，今天，我想谈另外一件事——事实上，恰恰相反。我想谈谈一种技术趋势，有些人认为这是改变世界的大趋势。但这实际上只不过是一种过时的时尚...
A "fake" megatrend, as we like to call it.
正如我们常说的那样，这是一个 “假的” 大趋势。
I'm referring to cannabis.
我指的是 大麻。
There's this idea floating around some circles that cannabis stocks will score investors huge gains in the 2020s. They anticipate that marijuana becomes the next alcohol. And they believe brands growing cannabis will turn into the next Corona, Budweiser (BDWBY), Guinness, etc.
一些圈子里流传着这样的观点，即大麻股票将在2020年代为投资者带来巨大收益。他们预计大麻将成为下一代酒精。他们相信种植大麻的品牌将变成下一个冠状病毒， 百威啤酒 （BDWBY)、吉尼斯等
But that just isn't true. In fact, it couldn't be farther from the truth.
但事实并非如此。事实上，这与事实相去甚远。
So, even if you're a long-term investor, ditch pot stocks today and buy other real secular growth stocks instead.
因此，即使你是长期投资者，今天也要抛弃火锅股然后买入其他股票 取而代之的是真正的长期成长型股票。
Here's a deeper look at why.
以下是更深入地了解原因。
We Used to Be Bullish on Cannabis Stocks
我们曾经看好大麻股票
Once upon a time, we were bullish on cannabis stocks, too.
曾几何时，我们也看好大麻股票。
We saw the statistics that young folks like to consume marijuana as much as they like to drink alcohol. We saw the political dominoes falling one by one, with country after country legalizing pot.
我们看到的统计数据表明，年轻人喜欢吸食大麻，就像他们喜欢喝酒一样。我们看到政治多米诺骨牌一个接一个地倒下，一个接一个国家将底池合法化。
We connected the dots, thinking we were entering a new world where young folks would buy tons of legal marijuana.
我们把点滴联系起来，以为我们正在进入一个年轻人会购买大量合法大麻的新世界。
In fact, we believed this trend would create a $50-plus billion global cannabis industry. We expected the titans of the space would be the next Constellation Brands (STZ), Molson Coors (TAP), and Anheuser-Busch (BUD). Those are all alcoholic beverage giants worth a combined $150 billion.
实际上，我们相信这种趋势将创造一个超过500亿美元的全球大麻产业。我们预计太空中的巨人会是下一个 星座品牌 （STZ）， 莫尔森·库尔斯 （点击)，以及 Anheuser-Busch （芽）。这些都是酒精饮料巨头，总价值为1500亿美元。
But that was before. And this is now.
但那是以前。现在就是这样。
Now we're actually bearish on cannabis stocks. And that bearishness comes despite us maintaining a broadly bullish outlook on legal marijuana market growth.
现在我们实际上看跌了大麻股票。尽管我们对合法大麻市场的增长前景普遍持乐观态度，但这种看跌情绪还是出现了。
In other words, we still think the marijuana industry will grow significantly over the next few years. But we don't think cannabis stocks will score investors any decent returns at all.
换句话说，我们仍然认为大麻行业将在未来几年内显著增长。但是我们认为大麻股票根本不会为投资者带来任何可观的回报。
Why? Because growth isn't all that matters — the quality of that growth matters, too. And cannabis stocks simply have low-quality growth prospects.
为什么？因为增长并不是最重要的—— 这种增长的质量也很重要。而且大麻股票的增长前景很差。
Product Commoditization, Low Margins Weigh on Long-Term Growth Prospects
产品商品化、低利润率打压长期增长前景
Our change of heart on cannabis stocks came about after seeing the data. It underscored that even at scale, cannabis operators will forever have a tough time generating enormous profits.
看到数据后，我们对大麻股票改变了主意。它强调，即使规模大，大麻运营商也将永远很难创造巨额利润。
You see, our initial bull thesis didn't just hinge on the cannabis industry getting really big (and it will). It was also centered on the idea that companies like Canopy Growth (CGC) would be able to build big consumer brands. And we thought they could competitively monetize those brands at strong profit margins.
你看，我们最初的牛市论点并不仅仅取决于大麻行业的规模是否会变得非常大（而且会如此）。它还以公司喜欢的想法为中心 树冠生长 （CGC）将能够建立大型消费品牌。而且我们认为他们可以竞争性地通过这些品牌获利，获得丰厚的利润率。
But recent trends imply that won't happen.
但是最近的趋势表明这不会发生。
All these cannabis giants have shown disappointing earnings report after disappointing earnings report. The problem isn't revenues. For most, revenues are surging. Instead, the problem lies with profits — or, more specifically, the lack thereof. Despite huge revenue growth, most cannabis companies have been reporting big and widening net losses.
在令人失望的收益报告之后，所有这些大麻巨头都显示了令人失望的收益报告。问题不在于收入。对于大多数人来说，收入激增。相反，问题在于利润，或者更具体地说，利润的缺乏。尽管收入大幅增长，但大多数大麻公司都报告了巨额且不断扩大的净亏损。
The implication? They're spending to grow, and they're earning negative ROI on that spend.
其中的含义？他们的支出是为了增长，而这笔支出却获得了负的投资回报率。
In other words, these businesses don't scale.
换句话说，这些业务无法扩展。
Why is this the case? Because the cannabis industry is entirely commoditized.
为什么会这样？ 因为大麻行业已完全商品化。
A Losing Game
一场失败的游戏
As it turns out, pot is pot. Sure, there's a difference in quality and strain. But your average consumer cannot tell that difference. And even if they can, most don't care. Those who can tell the difference and care represent a small segment of the population. And often, they already have loyalty to a home-grown brand or their dealer down the street. They don't have loyalty to a Canopy Growth or Aurora Cannabis (ACB).
事实证明，底池就是底池。当然，质量和菌株是有区别的。但是你的普通消费者无法分辨出这种区别。而且，即使他们可以，大多数人也不在乎。那些能分辨出区别的人 和 护理只占人口的一小部分。通常，他们已经对本土品牌或街上的经销商产生了忠诚度。他们对 Canopy Growth 没有忠诚度或 奥罗拉大麻 （ACB)。
In lieu of meaningful product differentiation and brand loyalty, these companies have to rely on price and distribution to drive competitive advantages.
这些公司不得不依靠价格和分销来推动竞争优势，而不是有意义的产品差异化和品牌忠诚度。
That's a losing ball game. You get into price wars where everyone loses. Spending on distribution only works until your competitor also scores the same distribution deals, in which case everything reverts to a lose-lose price war.
那是一场输球的游戏。你陷入了价格战，所有人都输了。只有在你的竞争对手也获得同样的分销协议之前，分销支出才会起作用，在这种情况下，一切都会变成一场双输的价格战。
In a nutshell, that is why we're bearish on cannabis stocks.
简而言之，这就是我们看跌大麻股票的原因。
We were hopeful these companies would be able to turn supercharged demand for legal pot into huge revenues and profits. But as each quarter passes and these companies lose more and more money, it has become clear that they won't.
我们希望这些公司能够将对合法大麻的激增需求转化为巨额收入和利润。但是，随着每个季度的过去，这些公司损失的钱越来越多，很明显他们不会。
Marijuana companies will forever struggle to make profits. And therefore, cannabis stocks will forever struggle to make you money.
大麻公司将永远难以盈利。因此，大麻股票将永远难以为你赚钱。
We want to invest in early-stage companies that will be enormously profitable one day – and whose stocks will make you a ton of money as a result.
我们希望投资早期的公司，这些公司有朝一日将获得丰厚的利润，因此这些公司的股票将为你赚很多钱。
Fortunately, I did find one tiny stock that fits that description perfectly. And I think it can surge 10X from current levels in a hurry.
幸运的是， 我确实找到了一只非常符合这种描述的小股票。而且我认为它可以很快从目前的水平飙升10倍。
The Final Word on Cannabis Stocks
大麻股票的最终决定权
My investment strategy is simple.
我的 投资策略 很简单。
I look for early-stage companies developing groundbreaking technology with the potential to fundamentally change the world. And I buy their stocks on the idea that I can make 10X-plus on my money in just a few short years.
我正在寻找开发具有从根本上改变世界的突破性技术的早期公司。我买入他们的股票的想法是我可以在短短几年内用我的钱赚到10倍以上。
It's this investment strategy that helped me uncover 1,000% returns in names like Shopify (SHOP), Tesla (TSLA), NIO (NIO), Plug Power (PLUG), Roku (ROKU), Block (SQ), and more.
正是这种投资策略帮助我从诸如此类的名字中发现了1,000％的回报 Shop （商店）， 特斯拉 （TSLA）， 不是 （不是）， 插上电源 （插头）， Roku （ROKU）， 阻止 （平方米），还有更多。
Unfortunately, cannabis stocks just don't fit into that investment strategy. And that's mostly because marijuana companies won't ever generate enormous profits. As such, since I know I won't make 10X my money on cannabis stocks, I don't invest in them.
不幸的是，大麻股票根本不适合这种投资策略。这主要是因为大麻公司永远不会产生巨额利润。因此，既然我知道在大麻股票上我赚不到10倍的钱，所以我不投资大麻股票。
Fortunately, plenty of other stocks do fit into that investment strategy. One is a tiny next-gen auto tech firm that's developed technology so groundbreaking that rumors are swirling that Apple (AAPL) – yes, that Apple – may soon partner with it to help build its long-awaited Apple Car.
幸运的是，还有许多其他股票也符合这种投资策略。其中一家是小型的下一代汽车科技公司，该公司开发的科技如此具有开创性，以至于有传言称 苹果 （AAPL）——是的，那个苹果——可能很快就会与之合作，帮助建造期待已久的苹果汽车。
Very few folks know about this company today. But that could change very soon. Apple is rapidly closing in on its rumored 2024 launch date for the Apple Car. And the tech giant could start making some splashy announcements any time now.
如今，很少有人知道这家公司。但这可能很快就会改变。苹果正在迅速接近其传闻中的Apple Car的2024年发布日期。这家科技巨头现在可以随时开始发布一些引人注目的公告。
If one of those announcements contains anything about this tiny company, the stock could be off to the races.
如果其中一项公告包含有关这家小公司的任何信息，那么该股可能会走上正轨道。
So, it's time to learn more about this small secular growth stock before everyone else and before it potentially soars.
因此，是时候在其他人之前，在它可能飙升之前，更多地了解这种小型长期成长型股票了。
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
在发布之日，卢克·兰戈没有（直接或间接）持有本文提及的证券的任何头寸。
The post Ditch the Losing Game in Cannabis Stocks for Much Greener Pastures appeared first on InvestorPlace.
《抛弃大麻股票的失败游戏换取更绿色的牧场》一文首次出现在InvestorPlace上。