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Is Wanda Film Holding (SZSE:002739) A Risky Investment?

Is Wanda Film Holding (SZSE:002739) A Risky Investment?

万达电影控股(SZSE:002739)是一项高风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/07/02 21:30

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Wanda Film Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002739) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

传奇基金经理理想汽车·卢曾说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当你考察一家公司的风险有多大时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业倒闭时,债务往往会涉及到它。我们注意到万达电影控股有限公司。(SZSE:002739)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。

When Is Debt A Problem?

什么时候债务是个问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是用自己的现金流。在最糟糕的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人的债务,它可能会破产。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先同时考虑现金和债务水平。

Check out our latest analysis for Wanda Film Holding

查看我们对万达电影控股的最新分析

What Is Wanda Film Holding's Net Debt?

万达电影控股的净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2022 Wanda Film Holding had debt of CN¥7.40b, up from CN¥6.99b in one year. However, it also had CN¥4.47b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥2.92b.

下面的图片,你可以点击查看更多细节,显示了截至2022年3月,万达电影控股公司的债务为74亿加元,而一年的债务为69.9亿加元。然而,它也有44.7亿元现金,因此其净债务为29.2亿元。

SZSE:002739 Debt to Equity History July 3rd 2022
深交所:002739债转股历史2022年7月3日

A Look At Wanda Film Holding's Liabilities

看万达电影控股的负债情况

According to the last reported balance sheet, Wanda Film Holding had liabilities of CN¥10.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥10.6b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥4.47b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.06b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥14.2b.

根据最近一次报告的资产负债表,万达电影控股公司有101亿元人民币的负债在12个月内到期,106亿元人民币的负债在12个月后到期。作为对这些债务的抵消,该公司有44.7亿加元的现金以及20.6亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债超过了现金和(近期)应收账款的总和142亿元。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Wanda Film Holding has a market capitalization of CN¥29.7b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

虽然这看起来可能很多,但并不是很糟糕,因为万达电影控股的市值为297亿元人民币,因此如果需要的话,它可能会通过筹集资本来加强其资产负债表。然而,仍值得密切关注其偿债能力。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

为了评估一家公司的债务相对于它的收益,我们计算它的净债务除以它的利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆盖)。这样,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量,也考虑了为其支付的利率。

Wanda Film Holding shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.32 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. One redeeming factor for Wanda Film Holding is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of CN¥243m, over the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Wanda Film Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

万达电影控股的股东面临着高净债务与EBITDA比率(5.2)和相当弱的利息覆盖的双重打击,因为EBIT仅为利息支出的0.32倍。这里的债务负担是巨大的。万达电影控股的一个可取之处是,它在过去12个月里将去年的息税前亏损变成了2.43亿加元的收益。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定万达电影控股能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. During the last year, Wanda Film Holding generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 99% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,重要的是要检查其息税前收益(EBIT)中有多少转换为实际的自由现金流。去年,万达电影控股产生的自由现金流占其息税前利润的99%,非常强劲,超出了我们的预期。这使其在偿还债务方面处于非常有利的地位。

Our View

我们的观点

Neither Wanda Film Holding's ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. We think that Wanda Film Holding's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. Even though Wanda Film Holding lost money on the bottom line, its positive EBIT suggests the business itself has potential. So you might want to check out how earnings have been trending over the last few years.

无论是万达电影控股用息税前利润来支付利息支出的能力,还是其对EBITDA的净债务,都让我们对其承担更多债务的能力失去了信心。但好消息是,它似乎能够轻松地将息税前利润转换为自由现金流。综合考虑上述数据点,我们认为万达电影控股的债务确实使其具有一定的风险。这不一定是一件坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的。尽管万达电影控股的利润是亏损的,但其正的息税前利润表明该业务本身具有潜力。因此,你可能想了解一下过去几年的收入趋势。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

如果你对一家增长迅速、资产负债表坚如磐石的公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金成长型股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。

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