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Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600267) A Risky Investment?

Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600267) A Risky Investment?

浙江海信药业(上证号:600267)是一项高风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/25 02:35

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600267) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

传奇基金经理李路曾说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。因此,当你评估一家公司的风险有多大时,聪明的投资者似乎知道债务--通常涉及破产--是一个非常重要的因素。重要的是浙江海信药业股份有限公司(上海证券交易所:600267)确实背负着债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务造成了多大的风险?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务在什么时候是危险的?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,一种更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东的股份,才能控制债务。当然,在企业中,债务可以是一个重要的工具,特别是资本密集型企业。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。

View our latest analysis for Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical

查看我们对浙江海信药业的最新分析

What Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's Net Debt?

浙江海信药业的净负债是多少?

As you can see below, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical had CN¥7.65b of debt at March 2022, down from CN¥8.71b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.56b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥6.09b.

如下所示,截至2022年3月,浙江海信药业的债务为人民币76.5亿元,低于一年前的人民币87.1亿元。另一方面,它拥有15.6亿元现金,导致净债务约为60.9亿元。

SHSE:600267 Debt to Equity History June 25th 2022
上证综指:600267债转股历史2022年6月25日

How Healthy Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's Balance Sheet?

浙江海信药业的资产负债表有多健康?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical had liabilities of CN¥8.60b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥3.37b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.56b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.75b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥7.66b.

从最近的资产负债表可以看出,浙江海信药业有86.0亿元的负债在一年内到期,33.7亿元的负债在一年内到期。作为对这些债务的抵销,该公司有15.6亿加元的现金以及27.5亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债超过了现金和(近期)应收账款的总和76.6亿元。

This deficit isn't so bad because Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical is worth CN¥15.8b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

这一赤字并不是那么糟糕,因为浙江海信药业价值人民币158亿元,因此如果需要的话,可能会筹集到足够的资本来支撑其资产负债表。但很明显,我们绝对应该仔细检查它是否能够在不稀释的情况下管理债务。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

为了评估一家公司的债务相对于它的收益,我们计算它的净债务除以它的利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆盖)。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's debt is 3.4 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.8 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Worse, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's EBIT was down 26% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

浙江海信药业的债务是其EBITDA的3.4倍,EBIT覆盖了利息支出的3.8倍以上。这表明,尽管债务水平很高,但我们不会说它们有问题。更糟糕的是,浙江海信药业的息税前利润比去年下降了26%。如果盈利继续沿着这一轨迹发展,还清债务将比说服我们在雨中跑马拉松更难。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但浙江海信药业的盈利将影响未来资产负债表的表现。因此,当考虑债务时,绝对值得关注收益趋势。点击此处查看互动快照。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last two years, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 94% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。因此,合乎逻辑的一步是看看息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。过去两年,浙江海信药业录得相当于其息税前利润94%的自由现金流,这比我们通常预期的要强。这使它处于有利的地位,如果需要的话,它可以偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Neither Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's ability to grow its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

无论是浙江海信药业的EBIT增长能力,还是其净债务与EBITDA之比,都没有让我们对其承担更多债务的能力产生信心。但好消息是,它似乎能够轻松地将息税前利润转换为自由现金流。综合上述因素,我们确实认为浙江海信药业的债务对业务构成了一些风险。虽然这笔债务可以提高回报,但我们认为该公司现在有足够的杠杆。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。要知道,浙江海信药业正在展示我们的投资分析中的4个警告信号,你应该知道关于……

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资于可以在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的企业,那么看看这个免费资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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