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Earnings are growing at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002839) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

Earnings are growing at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002839) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

江苏张家港农村商业银行(深交所:002839)盈利增长,但股东仍不看好其前景
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/22 19:58

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. To wit, the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (SZSE:002839) share price managed to fall 62% over five long years. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 5.6%.

一般来说,长期投资是一条可行的道路。但这并不意味着长期投资者可以避免巨额亏损。也就是说,江苏张家港市农村商业银行股份有限公司(SZSE:002839)股价在长达五年的时间里成功下跌了62%。对于长期持有者来说,这是一段不愉快的经历。上周,该公司股价又下跌了5.6%。

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

如果以过去一周为标准,投资者对江苏张家港农村商业银行的情绪并不乐观,所以让我们看看基本面和股价之间是否存在错配。

Check out our latest analysis for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank

查看我们对江苏张家港农村商业银行的最新分析

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

虽然市场是一种强大的定价机制,但股价反映的是投资者情绪,而不仅仅是潜在的企业表现。考察市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是观察一家公司的股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。

While the share price declined over five years, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 13% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

虽然股价在五年内下跌,但江苏张家港农村商业银行实际上成功地增加平均每年每股收益增长13%。因此,每股收益似乎并不能很好地指导人们理解市场对股票的估值。或者,增长预期在过去可能是不合理的。

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

由于每股收益增长率和股价增长率之间的鲜明对比,我们倾向于通过其他指标来了解围绕股票不断变化的市场情绪。

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

与股价形成对比的是,在这五年期间,营收实际上以每年12%的速度增长。因此,人们似乎必须更仔细地观察基本面,才能理解股价低迷的原因。毕竟,可能会有机会。

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

下图显示了收益和收入随时间的变化情况(如果您点击该图,您可以看到更多详细信息)。

SZSE:002839 Earnings and Revenue Growth June 22nd 2022
深交所:2022年6月22日收益和收入增长002839

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

可能值得注意的是,首席执行官的薪酬低于类似规模公司的中位数。关注首席执行官的薪酬总是值得的,但更重要的问题是,该公司是否会在未来几年实现盈利增长。因此,看看分析师认为江苏张家港农村商业银行未来的盈利情况(免费盈利预测)是很有意义的。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank's TSR for the last 5 years was -58%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。恰好,江苏张家港农村商业银行最近5年的TSR为-58%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

It's good to see that Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 10% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank .

令人欣慰的是,江苏张家港农村商业银行在过去12个月里以17%的总股东回报回报了股东。当然,这包括股息。值得注意的是,与最近的股价表现相比,TSR每年10%的五年年化亏损非常糟糕。长期的亏损让我们保持谨慎,但短期的TSR收益肯定暗示着更光明的未来。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。为此,您应该意识到1个警告标志我们已经与江苏张家港农村商业银行进行了接触。

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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