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We Think Sinopec Oilfield Service (HKG:1033) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Sinopec Oilfield Service (HKG:1033) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我们认为中石化油田服务(HKG:1033)的债务承担了一些风险
Simply Wall St ·  2022/06/21 20:38

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (HKG:1033) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的芒格支持的外部基金经理李路直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当你考察一家公司的风险有多大时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业倒闭时,债务往往会涉及到它。我们注意到中石化油田服务总公司(HKG:1033)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但股东是否应该担心它的债务使用情况?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。如果情况真的变得很糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。然而,一种更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东的股份,才能控制债务。当然,许多公司利用债务为增长提供资金,没有任何负面后果。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。

View our latest analysis for Sinopec Oilfield Service

查看我们对中石化油田服务的最新分析

What Is Sinopec Oilfield Service's Net Debt?

中石化油田服务的净负债是多少?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Sinopec Oilfield Service had CN¥20.0b in debt in March 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CN¥1.72b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥18.3b.

下面的图表显示,截至2022年3月,中石化油田服务公司的债务为200亿元人民币,与前一年大致相同。然而,它也有17.2亿元现金,因此其净债务为183亿元。

SEHK:1033 Debt to Equity History June 21st 2022
联交所:1033债转股历史2022年6月21日

A Look At Sinopec Oilfield Service's Liabilities

看中国石化油田服务公司的负债

The latest balance sheet data shows that Sinopec Oilfield Service had liabilities of CN¥55.2b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.27b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.72b and CN¥27.3b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥28.4b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,中石化油田服务一年内到期负债552亿元,一年后到期负债22.7亿元。另一方面,一年内有17.2亿元现金和273亿元应收账款到期。因此,它的负债总额为人民币284亿元,比现金和近期应收账款加起来还要多。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥28.8b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Sinopec Oilfield Service's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

与其288亿加元的市值相比,这一赤字是相当可观的,因此这确实表明股东应该密切关注中石化油田服务公司的债务使用情况。这表明,如果该公司需要匆忙支撑其资产负债表,股东将被严重稀释。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(净债务与EBITDA之比),也考虑了与债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。

While we wouldn't worry about Sinopec Oilfield Service's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.6, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.4 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Worse, Sinopec Oilfield Service's EBIT was down 33% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sinopec Oilfield Service's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

虽然我们不会担心中石化油田服务的净债务与EBITDA之比为4.6,但我们认为其1.4倍的超低利息覆盖是高杠杆的迹象。这在很大程度上是因为该公司的巨额折旧和摊销费用,这可以说意味着它的EBITDA是一个非常慷慨的收益衡量标准,它的债务可能比最初看起来更沉重。最近似乎很明显,借贷成本正在对股东的回报产生负面影响。更糟糕的是,中石化油田服务的息税前利润比去年下降了33%。如果长期盈利保持这样的水平,它在地狱里偿还债务的机会就像滚雪球一样渺茫。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但决定中石化油田服务未来保持健康资产负债表的能力,最重要的是未来的收益。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Sinopec Oilfield Service actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们显然需要看看息税前利润是否会带来相应的自由现金流。在过去三年中,中石化油田服务实际上产生了比息税前利润更多的自由现金流。这种强劲的现金转换让我们像傻朋克演唱会上节奏下降时的观众一样兴奋。

Our View

我们的观点

To be frank both Sinopec Oilfield Service's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Sinopec Oilfield Service's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Sinopec Oilfield Service (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

坦率地说,中石化油田服务的利息覆盖率和其息税前利润(不)增长的记录都让我们对其债务水平感到相当不安。但至少它在将息税前利润转化为自由现金流方面相当不错;这是令人鼓舞的。从更大的角度来看,我们似乎很清楚,中石化油田服务公司的债务使用正在给公司带来风险。如果一切顺利,这可能会得到回报,但这笔债务的不利之处是永久性损失的风险更大。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。为此,您应该了解3个警示标志我们已经发现了中石化油田服务公司(包括一家不太受我们欢迎的公司)。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来看看我们的净现金成长型股票独家名单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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