Is Piesat Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688066) Worth CN¥66.2 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?
Is Piesat Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688066) Worth CN¥66.2 Based On Its Intrinsic Value?
How far off is Piesat Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688066) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
皮萨特信息技术有限公司(上海证券交易所股票代码:688066)距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过估计公司未来的现金流并将其贴现到现值,来看看股票的定价是否公平。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
View our latest analysis for Piesat Information Technology
查看我们对Piesat信息技术的最新分析
The model
模型
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天美元计算的估计价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥66.0m | CN¥129.0m | CN¥298.0m | CN¥375.8m | CN¥477.1m | CN¥554.8m | CN¥623.6m | CN¥683.8m | CN¥736.8m | CN¥784.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 16.29% | Est @ 12.39% | Est @ 9.66% | Est @ 7.75% | Est @ 6.41% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4% | CN¥60.9 | CN¥110 | CN¥234 | CN¥272 | CN¥319 | CN¥342 | CN¥355 | CN¥359 | CN¥357 | CN¥351 |
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元6600万元 | CN元1.29亿元 | CN元2.98亿元 | CN元3.758亿元 | 净额4.771亿元 | CN元5.548亿元 | CN元6.236亿元 | CN人民币6.838亿元 | 净额7.368亿元 | 净额7.841亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@16.29% | Est@12.39% | Est@9.66% | Est@7.75% | Est@6.41% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现8.4% | CN元60.9元 | CN元110元 | CN元234元 | CN元272元 | CN元319元 | CN元342元 | CN元355元 | CN元359元 | CN元357元 | CN元351元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.8b
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币28亿元
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.4%.
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.3%的5年平均水平。我们以8.4%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现至今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥784m× (1 + 3.3%) ÷ (8.4%– 3.3%) = CN¥16b
终端值(TV)=FCF2031×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元784M×(1+3.3%)?(8.4%-3.3%)=CN元16b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥16b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)10= CN¥7.1b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=cn元16b?(1+8.4%)10=CN人民币71亿元
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥9.9b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥66.2, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为人民币99亿元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。与目前66.2元的股价相比,在撰写本文时,该公司的估值似乎略有高估。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
The assumptions
假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Piesat Information Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.029. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Piesat Information Technology视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.4%,这是基于杠杆率为1.029的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
Moving On:
下一步:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Piesat Information Technology, there are three further factors you should look at:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一一项分析。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。我们能弄清楚为什么该公司的股价高于内在价值吗?对于Piesat Information Technology,您还应该考虑以下三个因素:
- Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Piesat Information Technology (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does 688066's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 风险:例如,我们已经确定了皮埃萨特信息技术公司的2个警告信号(%1可能很严重)您应该注意。
- 未来收益:688066的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。