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7 Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid Until the Market Crashes Again

7 Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid Until the Market Crashes Again

在市场再次崩盘之前应避开7只大盘股
InvestorPlace ·  2022/05/24 06:41

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  • While large-capitalization firms are generally solid bets, during recessionary cycles, they're liable for heart-wrenching drops, making them stocks to avoid.
  • Apple (AAPL): Guaranteed to arouse anger, it's nevertheless worrying that famed investor Michael Burry is short Apple.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Another crowd favorite, TSLA is sure to rise again but for now, market conditions make it one of the large-cap stocks to avoid.
  • Meta Platforms (FB): Neither the social media firm's transition to the metaverse nor its core business looks appealing at the moment.
  • Comcast (CMCSA): As competition in the digital entertainment space intensifies, CMCSA increasingly looks lost, thus being one of the stocks to avoid.
  • Nike (NKE): Although it's one of the world's most recognizable brands, the market is sending bad signals for NKE, justifying its inclusion on this list of stocks to avoid.
  • United Parcel Service (UPS): With competition intensifying and e-commerce declining as a whole, UPS is likely one of the large-cap stocks to avoid.
  • Salesforce (CRM): Against a backdrop of rising inflation and reduced economic sentiment, CRM seems liable for a sharp correction.
  • 尽管大盘股公司通常是稳健的赌注,但在衰退周期中,它们可能会出现令人心碎的下跌,这使它们成为值得避开的股票。
  • 苹果AAPL):这肯定会引起愤怒,但令人担忧的是,著名投资者迈克尔·伯里做空苹果。
  • 特斯拉TSLA):另一个受众喜爱的TSLA肯定会再次上涨,但就目前而言,市场状况使其成为值得避开的大盘股之一。
  • 元平台FB):目前,这家社交媒体公司向元宇宙的过渡及其核心业务看起来都没有吸引力。
  • 康卡斯特CMCSA):随着数字娱乐领域竞争的加剧,CMCSA越来越显得迷失方向,因此成为值得避开的股票之一。
  • 耐克NKE):尽管它是世界上最知名的品牌之一,但市场正在向NKE发出了不好的信号,证明将其列入这份应避免的股票清单是合理的。
  • 联合包裹服务UPS):随着竞争的加剧和电子商务的整体下滑,UPS可能是值得避开的大盘股之一。
  • 销售部队CRM):在通货膨胀率上升和经济景气低迷的背景下,CRM似乎有可能出现大幅调整。
Source: Shutterstock
来源:Shutterstock

In arguably most normal circumstances, investing in large-capitalization companies often represents a solid deal since you're directing funds toward the most established and proven businesses. But in acutely negative circumstances — say right before a recession, depression or black swan event — many firms in this rarefied category can become stocks to avoid.

可以说,在大多数正常情况下,投资大市值公司通常是一笔不错的交易,因为你要将资金引向最成熟和最成熟的企业。但是,在严重负面的情况下,比如在经济衰退、萧条或黑天鹅事件之前,许多属于这种稀缺类别的公司可能会成为值得避开的股票。

Essentially, these investments suffer from a math problem. I'm sure you've heard of the phrase, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Well, it's the same principle with large-cap stocks to avoid. During the good times, they accrue massive amounts of investor dollars. But when things go awry, this segment can suffer an avalanche of volatility.

从本质上讲,这些投资存在数学问题。我敢肯定你听说过这句话,它们越大,摔得越难。好吧,避开大盘股的原则也是一样的。在景气时期,他们积累了大量的投资者资金。但是,当事情出现问题时,该细分市场可能会遭受巨大的波动。

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Second, the major blue chips often play the role of de-facto economic indicators. For instance, all eyes were glued to the earnings reports of big-box retailers Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT), regardless of whether they owned shares or not. For observers, these companies provide the pulse of the American consumer economy and their poor results further support the argument about large-cap stocks to avoid.

其次,主要蓝筹股往往发挥着事实上的经济指标的作用。例如,所有人的目光都集中在大型零售商的收益报告上 沃尔玛(Walmart) (纽约证券交易所:WMT) 和 目标 (纽约证券交易所:TGT),无论他们是否拥有股份。对于观察者来说,这些公司提供了美国消费经济的脉搏,其糟糕的业绩进一步支持了关于应避免的大盘股的论点。

Ticker
Ticker
Company
公司
Current Price
当前价格
AAPL
AAPL
Apple $137.59
苹果 137.59 美元
TSLA
TSLA
Tesla $663.90
特斯拉 663.90 美元
FB
FB
Meta Platforms $193.54
Meta Platforms 193.54 美元
CMCSA
CMCSA
Comcast $42.01
康卡斯特 42.01 美元
NKE
NKE
Nike $108.00
耐克 108.00 美元
UPS
UPS
United Parcel Service $171.04
联合包裹服务 171.04 美元
CRM
CRM
Salesforce $159.65
Salesforce 159.65 美元

Apple (AAPL)

苹果 (AAPL)

As anybody who has written about the investment sector can appreciate, mentioning anything negative about consumer electronics giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) can be hazardous to your inbox. So, I'm going to weasel my way out of the criticism by proverbially throwing Michael Burry under the bus. You see, the trader from The Big Short has made yet another bold move, this time shorting AAPL stock.

正如任何写过有关投资领域的文章的人都可以理解的那样,提及任何关于消费电子巨头的负面信息 苹果 (纳斯达克:AAPL) 可能对您的收件箱有危险。所以,俗话说,我要把迈克尔·伯里扔到公共汽车下来摆脱批评。你看,来自的交易者 大空头 又采取了大胆的举动,这次是做空AAPL股票。

Gaining fame and notoriety for betting against the housing bubble and profiting handsomely during the subprime mortgage crisis, Burry purchased put options against 206,000 Apple shares. Notably, he's going head to head with the Oracle of Omaha himself, Warren Buffett, who purchased $600 million worth of AAPL stock last quarter.

伯里因押注房地产泡沫并在次级抵押贷款危机期间获利丰厚而声名狼藉,他购买了20.6万股苹果股票的看跌期权。值得注意的是,他将与奥马哈甲骨文本人沃伦·巴菲特正面交锋,后者在上个季度购买了价值6亿美元的AAPL股票。

So, who's going to win in the battle of the titans? If I were a betting man, I'm going to go with Burry. From a technical perspective, AAPL is one of the large-cap stocks to avoid, shedding 24% of its market value on a year-to-date basis. Fundamentally, rising inflation poses huge restrictions on discretionary purchases, making AAPL less credible in 2022.

那么,谁会在泰坦之战中获胜呢?如果我是一个博彩爱好者,我会选择伯里。从技术角度来看,AAPL是值得避开的大盘股之一,今年迄今已下跌其市值的24%。从根本上讲,通货膨胀率上升对全权购买构成了巨大限制,使得 AAPL 在 2022 年的可信度降低。

Tesla (TSLA)

特斯拉 (TSLA)

Another publicly traded security that arouses intense loyalty among its fans, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) — the house that revered entrepreneur Elon Musk built (or at least that's the popular narrative) — is currently suffering from un-Tesla like volatility. On the recent May 18 session, TSLA imploded by a magnitude of nearly 7%. If that wasn't worrying enough, shares are down almost 44% YTD.

另一种在粉丝中引起强烈忠诚的公开交易证券, 特斯拉 (纳斯达克:TSLA)——受人尊敬的企业家埃隆·马斯克建造的房子(或者至少这是流行的说法)——目前正遭受Un-Tesla等波动的影响。在最近的5月18日交易中,TSLA暴跌了近7%。如果这还不够令人担忧的话,股价年初至今下跌了近44%。

So, from a technical perspective, Tesla is one of the large-cap stocks to avoid. But doesn't that make it a compelling discount? After all, electric vehicles are the future. Moreover, Tesla commands brand cachet that will be difficult — some might say impossible — to usurp.

因此,从技术角度来看,特斯拉是值得避开的大盘股之一。但这不是一个引人注目的折扣吗?毕竟,电动汽车是未来。此外,特斯拉的品牌声望很难被篡夺,有些人可能会说这是不可能的。

Well, for starters, the aforementioned cachet will be put to the test with several premium EV startups poised to challenge Tesla's throne. On a broader level, though, it's possible that Tesla has already reached peak sales under the present paradigm. Simply put, EVs remain out of the reach of many households and rising inflation will exacerbate this challenge.

好吧,首先,上述声望将受到考验,几家高端电动汽车初创公司准备挑战特斯拉的王位。但是,在更广泛的层面上,在目前的模式下,特斯拉可能已经达到销售峰值。简而言之,电动汽车仍然是许多家庭无法获得的,通货膨胀率上升将加剧这一挑战。

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Tesla can come back from the malaise but I'd probably wait for a better signal.

特斯拉可以从不景气中恢复过来,但我可能会等待更好的信号。

Meta Platforms (FB)

Meta Platforms (FB)

I'm torn about Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) because its core Facebook business is social media done right (or right-ish). True, the social network has courted more than its fair share of controversies. However, the scope of influence is unprecedented and Facebook offers a utilitarian profile that competing platforms lack. Arguably, this is the main reason why Facebook's age demographics are more evenly distributed and less peaky than its rivals.

我被吓坏了 元平台 (纳斯达克:FB)因为其Facebook的核心业务是社交媒体做得对(或做对了)。诚然,该社交网络引发的争议远远超过了应有的争议。但是,影响范围是前所未有的,Facebook提供了竞争平台所缺乏的功利主义形象。可以说,这是Facebook的年龄人口结构比竞争对手分布更均匀、不那么高峰的主要原因。

But the thing is, we must set aside our personal feelings about our prospective investments and recognize when certain initiatives are simply not working. The fact that FB has suffered a 43% decline YTD and is down 40% over the trailing year may be enough for some folks to put it in a list of large-cap stocks to avoid.

但问题是,我们必须抛开对未来投资的个人感受,认识到某些举措何时根本行不通。FB年初至今下跌了43%,在过去的一年中下跌了40%,这一事实可能足以让一些人将其列入需要避免的大盘股名单。

Another issue that works against Meta Platforms is its transition to the metaverse. Personally, I've joined the chorus of critics that say the innovation is overhyped. In a world of shortened attention spans, it's possible that Meta is betting big on a passing fad. Therefore, you might want to stay away.

另一个不利于Meta Platforms 的问题是它向元宇宙的过渡。就我个人而言,我加入了批评者的行列,他们说这项创新被夸大了。在注意力跨度缩短的世界中,Meta 可能将赌注押在过时时尚上。因此,你可能想远离。

Comcast (CMCSA)

康卡斯特 (CMCSA)

In the rough and tumble world of Wall Street boardrooms, cynical thinking dominates. Therefore, more than one high-profile investor likely thought that the damage done to Disney (NYSE:DIS) should bode well for rival Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA). The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that jazz.

在华尔街董事会的艰难世界中,愤世嫉俗的思维占主导地位。因此,可能有不止一位知名投资者认为损害对他们造成了损害 迪士尼 (纽约证券交易所:DIS) 对竞争对手来说应该是个好兆头 康卡斯特 (纳斯达克:CMCSA)。我敌人的敌人是我的朋友和所有爵士乐。

Unfortunately in some cases, the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy. While CMCSA is "only" down 17% YTD — compared to the awful 34% YTD loss for DIS — it's not much of a consolation. Further, while the political winds don't favor Disney due to its stance on certain issues, let's not forget that Comcast isn't exactly winning over hearts and minds.

不幸的是,在某些情况下,我敌人的敌人仍然是我的敌人。尽管CMCSA年初至今 “仅” 下降了17%,而DIS年初至今的亏损为34%,但这并不令人安慰。此外,尽管由于迪士尼在某些问题上的立场,政治风向并不偏向迪士尼,但我们不要忘记康卡斯特并没有完全赢得民心。

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Fundamentally, the media and entertainment giant appears to be running out of ideas to distinguish itself in a crowded field. For instance, a few weeks ago, CMCSA slumped due to slowing broadband subscriber growth. Further, it might lack the legs to be truly competitive in the content front. There are only so many sequels and spinoffs of the Fast and Furious franchise that you can milk before consumers get tired of it.

从根本上讲,这家媒体和娱乐巨头似乎已经没有什么想法可以在拥挤的领域中脱颖而出。例如,几周前,由于宽带用户增长放缓,CMCSA 暴跌。此外,它可能缺乏在内容方面真正具有竞争力的能力。的续集和衍生作品只有那么多 速度与激情 特许经营权可以在消费者厌倦之前挤奶。

Nike (NKE)

耐克 (NKE)

One of the most powerful consumer brands in the world, Nike (NYSE:NKE) benefitted handsomely from the new normal. With millions of corporate employees forced to work from home to mitigate the wider impact of the coronavirus, office wear was out and casual attire was in. Well, nothing spells casual — with a splash of sophistication — than Nike.

世界上最强大的消费品牌之一, 耐克 (纽约证券交易所:NKE)从新常态中受益匪浅。数以百万计的企业员工被迫在家工作,以减轻冠状病毒的更广泛影响,办公服已经过时,休闲服装开始流行。好吧,没有什么比耐克更具休闲气息的了。

However, it's quite possible that work from home may soon come to an end. Some managers have expressed frustration with the lack of accountability that telecommuting can at times engender. While most worker bees are not happy about getting recalled to the office, here's the thing: with layoffs increasing due to recessionary pressures, not going back to the office can make one stand out for all the wrong reasons.

但是,在家工作很可能很快就会结束。一些经理对远程办公有时会导致缺乏问责制表示沮丧。虽然大多数工蜂对被召回办公室并不满意,但事实是:由于衰退压力,裁员人数增加, 出于种种错误的理由,回到办公室可能会让人脱颖而出。

If this scenario plays out at scale, we'll see a pivot in consumer habits: out with casual wear, in with office-acceptable attire. Factor in rising inflation and it's not difficult to understand why NKE is one of the large-cap stocks to avoid: the negativity in the charts is confirming the pessimistic pivot in the consumer economy.

如果这种情况大规模发生,我们将看到消费者习惯的转变:穿休闲装,改穿办公室可以接受的服装。将通货膨胀率上升考虑在内,不难理解为什么NKE是值得避免的大盘股之一:图表中的负面情绪证实了消费经济的悲观支点。

United Parcel Service (UPS)

联合包裹服务 (UPS)

When Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) sparked the e-commerce revolution, United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) was a go-to recipient of downwind benefits. Indeed, the more widgets and gadgets that Amazon sold, the busier UPS was delivering them to households across America. It was a beautiful relationship until Amazon had the grand idea of shipping its own products.

什么时候 亚马逊 (纳斯达克:AMZN)引发了电子商务革命, 联合包裹服务 (纽约证券交易所:UPS)是顺风补助的首选接受者。事实上,亚马逊出售的小部件和小工具越多,UPS就越繁忙地将其运送到美国各地的家庭。在亚马逊有了发货自己的产品的好主意之前,这是一段美好的关系。

With Amazon's Prime delivery service, the e-commerce giant is further competing with UPS and rival FedEx (NYSE:FDX), arguably another name among large-cap stocks to avoid. Anecdotally, Amazon-branded couriers have become rather ubiquitous. And if you think about it, each sighting represents a loss of market share for UPS and its ilk.

借助亚马逊的Prime配送服务,这家电子商务巨头正在进一步与UPS和竞争对手竞争 联邦快递 (纽约证券交易所:FDX),可以说是大盘股中值得避开的另一个名字。有趣的是,亚马逊品牌的快递已经变得无处不在。如果你仔细想想,每一次目击都意味着UPS及其同类产品的市场份额的损失。

But perhaps the bigger issue with UPS is that Covid-19-related spike in e-commerce transactions was relatively short-lived. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, e-commerce as a percentage of all retail sales peaked in the second quarter of 2020 at 15.7% Since then, this metric has steadily declined, with the most recent count in Q4 2021 sitting at 12.9%.

但也许UPS最大的问题是,与COVID-19相关的电子商务交易激增相对较短。根据美国人口普查局的数据,电子商务占所有零售额的百分比在2020年第二季度达到峰值,为15.7%。此后,该指标稳步下降,2021年第四季度的最新数据为12.9%。

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Frankly, that's not helpful at all for UPS stock.

坦率地说,这对UPS股票根本没有帮助。

Salesforce (CRM)

销售部队 (CRM)

A cloud-based software company specializing in customer relationship management (CRM) platforms, Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is one of the biggest success stories in the technology realm, demonstrating the power of wagering on a great idea before the big wave hits. But now that this wave has already materialized, investors may want to consider an exit plan.

一家专门从事客户关系管理 (CRM) 平台的基于云的软件公司, 销售部队 (纽约证券交易所:CRM)是科技领域最大的成功案例之一,展示了在巨浪来临之前押注一个好主意的力量。但既然这波浪潮已经出现,投资者可能想考虑退出计划。

On a YTD basis, CRM stock has lost over 38% of market value. Over the trailing six months, it has tanked nearly 46%. Since 2018, CRM looks like it is charting a bearish broadening wedge formation, which implies that following a dead-cat bounce, the equity unit is liable to even more sharply. Problematically, the fundamentals don't provide much encouragement for stakeholders.

年初至今,CRM股票已下跌超过市值的38%。在过去的六个月中,它已经下跌了近46%。自2018年以来,CRM似乎正在形成看跌的扩大楔形形态,这意味着在出现死猫反弹之后,该股票单位的涨幅可能会更加剧烈。问题是,基本面并没有给利益相关者带来太大的鼓励。

Although Salesforce and cloud computing are relevant, the pressing issue is that a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and brewing fears of a recession could impact the company's clients in terms of software spending. That would then trickle back up to Salesforce, forcing the software provider to lean out its own operations.

尽管Salesforce和云计算很重要,但紧迫的问题是,高通胀、利率上升和对经济衰退的担忧可能在软件支出方面影响公司的客户。然后,这将渗透回Salesforce,迫使软件提供商精简自己的业务。

It's just not a great look, making CRM one of the large-cap stocks to avoid for now.

这看起来不太好,这使CRM成为目前值得避开的大盘股之一。

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

出版之日,Josh Enomoto 没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com的约束出版指南

The post 7 Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid Until the Market Crashes Again appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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