Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for China State Construction International Holdings

What Is China State Construction International Holdings's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2021 China State Construction International Holdings had HK$74.0b of debt, an increase on HK$60.3b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of HK$25.5b, its net debt is less, at about HK$48.5b.

How Healthy Is China State Construction International Holdings' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China State Construction International Holdings had liabilities of HK$92.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of HK$60.1b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had HK$25.5b in cash and HK$80.5b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling HK$47.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of HK$48.9b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

China State Construction International Holdings has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.8 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.5 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Importantly, China State Construction International Holdings grew its EBIT by 32% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine China State Construction International Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, China State Construction International Holdings saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say China State Construction International Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making China State Construction International Holdings stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with China State Construction International Holdings (including 1 which is significant) .

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.