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Is Wangfujing Group (SHSE:600859) A Risky Investment?

Is Wangfujing Group (SHSE:600859) A Risky Investment?

王府井集团(上海证券交易所代码:600859)是一项高风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/14 21:03

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600859) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的芒格支持的外部基金经理李路直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。因此,当你考虑到任何一只股票的风险有多大时,你需要考虑债务可能是显而易见的,因为太多的债务可能会让一家公司倒闭。我们可以看到王府井集团有限公司。(上海证券交易所:600859)确实在其业务中使用债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是用自己的现金流。资本主义的一部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,破产的企业被银行家无情地清算。尽管这并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债累累的公司永久性地稀释股东的权益,因为贷款人迫使他们以令人沮丧的价格筹集资金。当然,债务的好处是,它往往代表着廉价资本,特别是当它用能够以高回报率进行再投资的能力取代公司的稀释时。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先同时考虑现金和债务水平。

Check out our latest analysis for Wangfujing Group

查看我们对王府井集团的最新分析

What Is Wangfujing Group's Net Debt?

王府井集团的净负债是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2022 Wangfujing Group had debt of CN¥3.98b, up from CN¥3.37b in one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥13.6b in cash, so it actually has CN¥9.61b net cash.

下图显示,截至2022年3月,王府井集团的债务为39.8亿加元,高于一年内的33.7亿加元。你可以点击查看更多细节。然而,其资产负债表显示,它持有人民币136亿元的现金,因此它实际上拥有人民币96.1亿元的净现金。

SHSE:600859 Debt to Equity History May 15th 2022
上证综指:600859债转股历史2022年5月15日

How Healthy Is Wangfujing Group's Balance Sheet?

王府井集团的资产负债表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Wangfujing Group had liabilities of CN¥10.0b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥8.20b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥13.6b and CN¥602.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥4.01b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据最近一次上报的资产负债表,王府井集团有10.0亿加元的负债在12个月内到期,82亿加元的负债在12个月后到期。另一方面,它有136亿加元的现金和6.02亿加元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额为人民币40.1亿元,比现金和近期应收账款加起来还要多。

Of course, Wangfujing Group has a market capitalization of CN¥24.6b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Wangfujing Group also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

当然,王府井集团的市值为246亿元人民币,因此这些负债大概是可控的。但有足够的负债,我们肯定会建议股东继续监控未来的资产负债表。虽然王府井集团确实有值得注意的负债,但它的现金也多于债务,所以我们非常有信心它能够安全地管理债务。

In addition to that, we're happy to report that Wangfujing Group has boosted its EBIT by 49%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Wangfujing Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

除此之外,我们很高兴地报告,王府井集团将息税前利润提高了49%,从而降低了未来偿还债务的幽灵。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但决定王府井集团未来能否保持健康资产负债表的,最重要的是未来的收益。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Wangfujing Group has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Looking at the most recent three years, Wangfujing Group recorded free cash flow of 45% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润只是不能削减这一点。虽然王府井集团的资产负债表上有净现金,但它将息税前利润(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力仍然值得一看,以帮助我们了解它正在以多快的速度建立(或侵蚀)现金余额。从最近三年来看,王府井集团的自由现金流占其息税前利润的45%,这一数字低于我们的预期。这种疲软的现金转换增加了处理债务的难度。

Summing up

总结

Although Wangfujing Group's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥9.61b. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 49% over the last year. So is Wangfujing Group's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Wangfujing Group has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

虽然王府井集团的资产负债表不是特别强劲,但由于总负债,它的净现金为96.1亿元人民币,这显然是积极的。去年息税前利润49%的增长给我们留下了深刻的印象。那么,王府井集团的债务是一种风险吗?但在我们看来并非如此。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如-王府井集团有3个警示标志我们认为你应该意识到。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资于可以在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的企业,那么看看这个免费资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。

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