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Launch Tech's (HKG:2488) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Launch Tech's (HKG:2488) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Launch Tech Company Limited's (HKG:2488) stock hasn't moved much. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.
Check out our latest analysis for Launch Tech
SEHK:2488 Earnings and Revenue History May 9th 2022Examining Cashflow Against Launch Tech's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
For the year to December 2021, Launch Tech had an accrual ratio of 0.25. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥63m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥92.4m. We saw that FCF was CN¥158m a year ago though, so Launch Tech has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Launch Tech's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Launch Tech.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥11m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Launch Tech doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
Our Take On Launch Tech's Profit Performance
Launch Tech had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Launch Tech's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Launch Tech at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Launch Tech you should be mindful of and 1 of these is potentially serious.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Launch Tech Company Limited's (HKG:2488) stock hasn't moved much. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.
尽管公布了一些强劲的收益,但市场发射科技有限公司的(HKG:2488)股票波动不大。我们做了一些挖掘,我们在细节中发现了一些令人担忧的因素。
Check out our latest analysis for Launch Tech
查看我们对Launch Tech的最新分析
Examining Cashflow Against Launch Tech's Earnings
对照Launch Tech的收益考察现金流
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
在高端金融领域,衡量一家公司将报告利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的程度的关键比率是应计比率(来自现金流)。为了得到应计比率,我们首先从一个时期的利润中减去FCF,然后用这个数字除以该时期的平均运营资产。你可以把来自现金流的应计比率看作是‘非FCF利润率’。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,负的应计比率对公司是积极的,而正的应计比率是负的。虽然应计比率为正并不是问题,这表明非现金利润达到了一定的水平,但高的应计比率可以说是一件坏事,因为它表明账面利润与现金流不匹配。值得注意的是,有一些学术证据表明,一般来说,高应计比率对短期利润来说不是一个好兆头。
For the year to December 2021, Launch Tech had an accrual ratio of 0.25. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥63m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥92.4m. We saw that FCF was CN¥158m a year ago though, so Launch Tech has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Launch Tech's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
在截至2021年12月的一年中,Launch Tech的应计比率为0.25。因此,我们知道它的自由现金流明显低于其法定利润,这很难说是一件好事。在过去的一年里,它实际上负面自由现金流为6300万元,而前述利润为9240万元。我们看到一年前的FCF是1.58亿加元,所以Launch Tech至少在过去能够产生正的FCF。话虽如此,故事中还有更多的东西。我们可以看到,不寻常的项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比率。对股东来说,好消息是Launch Tech去年的应计比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕读数可能只是利润和FCF之间短期错配的一个例子。如果情况确实如此,股东应该期待本年度相对于利润的现金流有所改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Launch Tech.
注:我们总是建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。单击此处查看我们对Launch Tech的资产负债表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不寻常的项目如何影响利润?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥11m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Launch Tech doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
该公司去年有一些不寻常的项目使利润增加了1100万加元,这一事实可能在某种程度上解释了为什么它的应计比率如此之低。虽然有更高的利润总是好事,但不寻常的东西带来的巨大贡献有时会挫伤我们的热情。当我们分析了数千家上市公司的数据时,我们发现,在给定的一年中,不寻常的项目往往会带来提振不第二年又重复了一遍。考虑到这些提振被描述为“不寻常的”,这正如你所预期的那样。如果Launch Tech没有看到这一贡献再次出现,那么在其他条件相同的情况下,我们预计该公司今年的利润将会下降。
Our Take On Launch Tech's Profit Performance
我们对Launch Tech利润表现的看法
Launch Tech had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Launch Tech's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Launch Tech at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Launch Tech you should be mindful of and 1 of these is potentially serious.
Launch Tech的应计比率较低,但它的利润确实得到了不寻常项目的提振。基于上述原因,我们认为,敷衍地看一眼Launch Tech的法定利润,可能会让它看起来比实际情况更好。因此,尽管收益质量很重要,但考虑到Launch Tech目前面临的风险也同样重要。一个恰当的例子:我们发现了发射技术的2个警告标志你应该注意,其中一个是潜在的严重问题。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
在这篇文章中,我们研究了一些可能削弱利润数字效用的因素,我们对此持谨慎态度。但还有很多其他方式可以让你了解一家公司的看法。一些人认为,高股本回报率是高质量企业的良好标志。所以你可能想看看这个免费拥有高股本回报率的公司的集合,或内部人士正在购买的这份股票清单。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
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