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The three-year underlying earnings growth at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002958) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

The three-year underlying earnings growth at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (SZSE:002958) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

青岛农村商业银行(深圳证券交易所股票代码:002958)三年基本收益增长前景看好,但这段时间股东仍处于亏损状态
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/06 20:06

If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002958) shareholders. Unfortunately, they have held through a 63% decline in the share price in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 25%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Even worse, it's down 14% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 9.6% in the same time.

如果你正在建立一个适当多元化的股票投资组合,你挑选的一些股票可能会表现不佳。但过去三年对长期而言尤其艰难。青岛农村商业银行股份有限公司。(SZSE:002958)股东。不幸的是,在那段时间里,他们挺过了股价下跌63%的局面。去年,该公司股价下跌了25%,因此我们怀疑有多少股东对此感到高兴。更糟糕的是,它在大约一个月内下跌了14%,这一点都不好玩。但这可能与糟糕的市场状况有关--股市同期下跌了9.6%。

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

鉴于过去一周对股东的态度一直很严峻,让我们调查一下基本面,看看我们能学到什么。

Check out our latest analysis for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank

查看我们对青岛农村商业银行的最新分析

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

用巴菲特的话说,“船只将在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球协会将蓬勃发展。市场上的价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差异……”通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价随时间的变化,我们可以感受到投资者对一家公司的态度随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化。

Although the share price is down over three years, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to grow EPS by 6.2% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

尽管股价在三年多的时间里下跌,但青岛农村商业银行在这段时间里实际上实现了每股收益6.2%的增长。这是一个相当令人费解的问题,表明可能有什么因素暂时提振了股价。或者,该公司过去被过度炒作,因此其增长令人失望。

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

由于每股收益的变化似乎与股价的变化没有相关性,因此值得看看其他指标。

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 9.9% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. In that case, the current EPS might be viewed by some as difficult to sustain.

我们注意到,股息似乎足够健康,所以这可能无法解释股价下跌的原因。另一方面,收入以每年9.9%的速度毫无创意地下降,可能会让股东抛弃该公司的股票。在这种情况下,当前的每股收益可能会被一些人视为难以维持。

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

该公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。

SZSE:002958 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 6th 2022
深交所:2022年5月6日收益和收入增长002958

Take a more thorough look at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

以此更透彻地审视青岛农村商业银行的财务健康状况免费报告其资产负债表。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank's TSR for the last 3 years was -59%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。碰巧的是,青岛农村商业银行最近三年的TSR为-59%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异是没有好处的!

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

The last twelve months weren't great for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 23%, including dividends. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 14%, likely weighing on the stock. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 17% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last three years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

过去12个月,青岛农村商业银行的股价表现不佳,表现逊于大盘,持股者损失了23%,其中包括股息。与此同时,大盘下跌约14%,可能令该股承压。然而,过去一年的亏损没有过去三年投资者遭受的17%的年亏损那么严重。在认为股价将企稳之前,我们希望有明确的信息表明该公司将会增长。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。比如风险。每家公司都有,我们发现了青岛农村商业银行的3个警示标志(其中1个是关乎的!)你应该知道。

We will like Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

如果我们看到一些大的内部收购,我们会更喜欢青岛农村商业银行。在我们等待的时候,看看这个免费最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司名单。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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