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OPEC sticks to production plan as high oil prices boost economies

OPEC sticks to production plan as high oil prices boost economies

随着高油价提振经济,欧佩克坚持生产计划
Dow Jones ·  2022/05/05 10:14

By Benoit Faucon and Summer Said

作者:贝努瓦·福康和萨默·赛义德

OPEC and its allies stuck to a small, planned increase in oil production on Thursday, as windfall revenue from high crude prices boosts the economies of Saudi Arabia and other producers while providing a buffer to Russia against Western sanctions.

欧佩克及其盟国周四坚持按计划小幅增加石油产量,因为高原油价格带来的意外收入提振了沙特阿拉伯和其他生产国的经济,同时为俄罗斯提供了抵御西方制裁的缓冲区。

In its third meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in eight years, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a coalition of Moscow-led oil producers said they agreed to continue raising their collective production by 432,000 barrels a day.

石油输出国组织和莫斯科领导的石油生产国联盟在自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的第三次会议上表示,他们同意继续将集体产量提高每天43.2万桶,这是八年来首次突破每桶100美元。

The incremental boost for June is in line with what the cartel, called OPEC+, agreed to last year as part of a plan to raise output to prepandemic levels. It comes despite repeated calls in recent months from the U.S. and other major oil-consuming nations for Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to tap into the group's millions of barrels of remaining capacity to pump more oil to help tame prices.

6月份的增量增长与该名为OPEC+的卡特尔去年达成的协议一致,该协议是将产量提高到疫情前水平的计划的一部分。尽管最近几个月,美国和其他主要石油消费国一再呼吁沙特阿拉伯和其他欧佩克+成员国利用该集团的数百万桶剩余产能来开采更多石油以帮助抑制价格,但还是出现了这种情况。

In afternoon trading in London, Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 1% at $111 a barrel, while U.S. crude was 0.8% higher at $108.70.

在伦敦下午的交易中,国际基准布伦特原油上涨1%,至每桶111美元,而美国原油上涨0.8%,至108.70美元。

A proposed European embargo on Russian crude imports within six months could reduce global oil supplies and send prices higher, analysts say. Russian crude production has already fallen since the invasion of Ukraine in response to reduced demand overseas and in the domestic market.

分析人士称,欧洲提议在六个月内对俄罗斯原油进口实施禁运,可能会减少全球石油供应并推高价格。自入侵乌克兰以来,俄罗斯的原油产量已经下降,以应对海外和国内市场需求的减少。

In a speech to the group's delegates at a technical gathering ahead of Thursday's meeting, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said the "potential loss [of Russian oil], through either sanctions or voluntary actions, is clearly rippling through energy markets." But he noted this "cannot be made up from elsewhere. The spare capacity just does not exist." 

欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴尔金多在周四会议前的一次技术会议上向该组织代表发表讲话时说:“由于制裁或自愿行动,[俄罗斯石油] 的潜在损失显然正在席卷能源市场。”但他指出,这 “无法从其他地方弥补。备用容量根本不存在。”

Most OPEC+ members are already pumping at their maximum capacity, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- which have so-called spare capacity to raise their production -- say beefing up output would actually raise prices, not lower them.

大多数欧佩克+成员国已经在最大产能上抽水,而沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——它们拥有所谓的剩余产能来提高产量——则表示,增加产量实际上会提高价格,而不是降低价格。

High oil prices have resulted in tens of billions of dollars of additional revenue for many OPEC+ members, providing a vital boost to their economies after years of slow growth due to relatively low prices, some OPEC delegates and analysts say.

一些欧佩克代表和分析师表示,高油价为许多欧佩克+成员国带来了数百亿美元的额外收入,这为其经济提供了重要的推动力,此前他们因价格相对较低而经历了多年的缓慢增长。

"The Saudis and other oil producers benefit too much to take any chance and change the status quo in the short term," said Adel Hamaizia, a visiting fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University and a former economic adviser to the kingdom.

哈佛大学中东研究中心访问研究员、沙特前经济顾问阿德尔·哈迈齐亚说:“沙特和其他石油生产国受益匪浅,无法抓住任何机会在短期内改变现状。”

The International Monetary Fund in a report last week estimated oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa would receive $320 billion this year more than expected due to high oil prices. The economies of the region's core Arab oil producers are set to expand the most of any major economic region in the world this year, its data shows.

国际货币基金组织在上周的一份报告中估计,由于油价居高不下,今年中东和北非的石油出口国将比预期多3,200亿美元。其数据显示,该地区核心阿拉伯石油生产国的经济今年将是世界上所有主要经济区中扩张幅度最大的。

Saudi Arabia -- OPEC's biggest oil exporter and the group's de-facto leader -- registered its fastest growth in a decade during the first quarter, with its gross domestic product expanding 9.6% from a year earlier, according to the Saudi statistics authority. With oil production expected to increase further and the strong likelihood of looser fiscal policy, London-based consulting firm Capital Economics estimates the kingdom's economy will grow around 10% this year. That is far stronger than the 6.3% growth currently expected by the consensus, it said.

根据沙特统计局的数据,欧佩克最大的石油出口国和该集团事实上的领导者沙特阿拉伯在第一季度实现了十年来最快的增长,其国内生产总值比去年同期增长了9.6%。总部位于伦敦的咨询公司Capital Economics估计,由于预计石油产量将进一步增加,而且很有可能采取更宽松的财政政策,沙特的经济今年将增长约10%。它说,这远强于共识目前预期的6.3%的增长。

Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are also spending to expand their influence in countries badly hit by the food-commodity crisis. Riyadh has agreed to a $8 billion bailout package for Pakistan, long courted by rival Iran.

沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋也在花钱扩大在受粮食商品危机严重打击的国家的影响力。利雅得已同意向巴基斯坦提供80亿美元的一揽子救助计划,长期以来一直受到竞争对手伊朗的追捧。

Elevated oil prices are also expected to help buffer the shock of Ukraine-related sanctions for Russia. Russia's production fell by 367,000 barrels a day below its OPEC+ quota in April, according to data-intelligence company Kpler. Analysts say the proposed European Union ban on imports of Russian crude could reduce Moscow's oil sales because not every barrel of Russian oil that once landed in Europe will be rerouted to buyers in other markets.

预计油价上涨也将有助于缓冲与乌克兰有关的制裁对俄罗斯的冲击。根据数据情报公司Kpler的数据,俄罗斯的产量比4月份的欧佩克+配额下降了36.7万桶。分析人士说,拟议的欧盟禁止进口俄罗斯原油的禁令可能会减少莫斯科的石油销售,因为并非每桶曾经登陆欧洲的俄罗斯石油都会被转运给其他市场的买家。

Meanwhile, some other oil-producing states like Iraq and Algeria are set to reallocate a part of the extra cash they are making to deal with food inflation and ease chronic social tensions.

同时,其他一些产油国,例如伊拉克和阿尔及利亚,将重新分配他们赚取的部分额外现金,以应对粮食通货膨胀和缓解长期的社会紧张局势。

Baghdad says rising prices generated its highest oil revenue since 1972 in March, when it made $11 billion in a month. The IMF expects Iraq to be the fastest-growing oil economy in the region at 9.6% this year. But it is also facing an inflation rate of 6.9% in 2022, the fund says, in part driven by food prices. To mitigate living costs, Iraq's government has proposed a law authorizing the spending of $20 billion, including for the purchase of at least six months' worth of wheat and covering debts of farmers hit by rising fertilizer costs.

巴格达说,价格上涨创造了自1972年3月份以来的最高石油收入,当时它在一个月内赚了110亿美元。国际货币基金组织预计,今年伊拉克将成为该地区增长最快的石油经济体,为9.6%。但该基金表示,它在2022年也面临6.9%的通货膨胀率,这在一定程度上是由食品价格推动的。为了降低生活成本,伊拉克政府提出了一项法律,授权支出200亿美元,包括购买价值至少六个月的小麦和偿还受化肥成本上涨打击的农民的债务。

In Algeria, where chronic joblessness and a stagnant economy contributed to a popular uprising three years ago, the government is using the extra cash to ease tensions at home. In March, Algiers increased public pensions by up to 10%, and introduced new unemployment benefits of about $90 to more than half a million unemployed.

在阿尔及利亚,长期失业和经济停滞导致了三年前的民众起义,政府正在利用多余的现金来缓解国内的紧张局势。3月,阿尔及尔将公共养老金增加了多达10%,并向50多万失业者推出了约90美元的新失业救济金。

Oil prices have surged in recent months, fueling inflation around the world, in part because several OPEC+ members have been unable to meet their share of production as global demand has picked up.

近几个月来,石油价格飙升,助长了全球通货膨胀,部分原因是随着全球需求的回升,一些欧佩克+成员无法满足其产量份额。

While some members worry that elevated prices might eventually hurt demand in some key markets already struggling with high inflation, other delegates have said the surge in prices is being driven by panic and not demand-supply fundamentals, which would mean any additional supply wouldn't change much.

尽管一些成员担心价格上涨最终可能会损害一些已经在高通胀中挣扎的关键市场的需求,但另一些代表则表示,价格上涨是由恐慌而不是需求供应基本面推动的,这意味着任何额外的供应都不会有太大变化。

--Ghassan Adnan contributed to this article.

——加桑·阿德南为这篇文章做出了贡献。

Write to Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com

通过 benoit.faucon@wsj.com 写信给 Benoit Faucon 然后写信给 summer.said@wsj.com 萨默·赛义德

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