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We Think Liaoning Port (HKG:2880) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

We Think Liaoning Port (HKG:2880) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

我们认为辽宁港(HKG:2880)可以轻松管理其债务
Simply Wall St ·  2022/05/02 02:30

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. (HKG:2880) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的芒格支持的外部基金经理李路直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。因此,当你评估一家公司的风险有多大时,聪明的投资者似乎知道债务--通常涉及破产--是一个非常重要的因素。重要的是辽宁港务股份有限公司(HKG:2880)确实有债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务在什么时候是危险的?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是用新资本还是用自由现金流。如果情况真的变得很糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。然而,一种更常见(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低价筹集新的股本,从而永久性地稀释股东。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。

Check out our latest analysis for Liaoning Port

查看我们对辽宁港的最新分析

How Much Debt Does Liaoning Port Carry?

辽宁港背负着多少债务?

As you can see below, Liaoning Port had CN¥4.91b of debt at March 2022, down from CN¥7.51b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥4.75b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥164.6m.

如下所示,截至2022年3月,辽宁港的债务为人民币49.1亿元,低于一年前的人民币75.1亿元。另一方面,它拥有47.5亿加元的现金,导致净债务约为1.646亿加元。

SEHK:2880 Debt to Equity History May 2nd 2022
联交所:2880债转股历史2022年5月2日

A Look At Liaoning Port's Liabilities

看辽宁港口的负债状况

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Liaoning Port had liabilities of CN¥7.54b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥10.00b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥4.75b in cash and CN¥4.01b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥8.78b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

从最近的资产负债表可以看出,辽宁港有75.4亿元的负债在一年内到期,还有10亿元的负债在一年内到期。作为抵消,它有47.5亿加元的现金和40.1亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债总额为人民币87.8亿元,超过了现金和短期应收账款的总和。

This deficit isn't so bad because Liaoning Port is worth CN¥34.4b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. But either way, Liaoning Port has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

这一赤字并不是那么糟糕,因为辽宁港价值人民币344亿元,因此如果需要的话,可能会筹集到足够的资本来支撑其资产负债表。但很明显,我们绝对应该仔细检查它是否能够在不稀释的情况下管理债务。但无论如何,辽宁港几乎没有净债务,所以公平地说,它没有沉重的债务负担!

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

为了评估一家公司的债务相对于它的收益,我们计算它的净债务除以它的利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆盖)。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。

With debt at a measly 0.035 times EBITDA and EBIT covering interest a whopping 16.4 times, it's clear that Liaoning Port is not a desperate borrower. So relative to past earnings, the debt load seems trivial. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Liaoning Port has boosted its EBIT by 81%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Liaoning Port's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

辽宁港的债务仅为息税前利润的0.035倍,息税前利润高达16.4倍,很明显,辽宁港并不是一个绝望的借款人。因此,相对于过去的收益,债务负担似乎微不足道。除此之外,我们很高兴地报告,辽宁港的息税前利润增长了81%,从而降低了未来偿还债务的幽灵。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但辽宁港的盈利将影响未来资产负债表的表现。因此,当考虑债务时,绝对值得关注收益趋势。点击此处查看互动快照。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Liaoning Port produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 54% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去三年中,辽宁港产生了强劲的自由现金流,相当于息税前利润的54%,这与我们预期的差不多。这种冷酷的现金意味着,它可以在想要的时候减少债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Liaoning Port's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. It's also worth noting that Liaoning Port is in the Infrastructure industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the bigger picture, we think Liaoning Port's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Liaoning Port , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

辽宁港的利息担保表明,它可以轻松处理债务,就像克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在对阵14岁以下门将的比赛中进球一样。这只是好消息的开始,因为它的息税前利润增长率也非常令人鼓舞。同样值得注意的是,辽宁港属于基础设施行业,这一行业通常被认为是相当防御性的。从大局来看,我们认为辽宁港的举债似乎相当合理,我们并不担心。尽管债务确实会带来风险,但如果使用得当,它也可以带来更高的股本回报率。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。我们已经确定了辽宁港的两个警告信号,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇由《华尔街日报》撰写的文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简单地说,华尔街在提到的任何股票中都没有头寸。

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