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Wall Street finds new value in cash as global fears weigh on markets

Wall Street finds new value in cash as global fears weigh on markets

随着全球担忧令市场承压,华尔街发现了现金的新价值
Dow Jones ·  2022/04/25 08:00  · 市场

By Dion Rabouin

迪翁·拉布因著

Worries about the war in Ukraine, a U.S. or European recession and surging global inflation are making a long-spurned asset increasingly popular with Wall Street's top money managers these days: cash.

对乌克兰战争、美国或欧洲经济衰退以及全球通胀飙升的担忧,使得一种长期遭到摒弃的资产如今越来越受到华尔街顶级基金经理的青睐:现金。

As stock and bond prices have retreated from records in the tumult of headlines, more asset managers said they are looking to move funds into low-risk, cash-like assets. That marks a shift from recent years, when steadily climbing equity indexes trained investors to buy every dip and not miss out on gains by holding cash.

随着股票和债券价格从头条新闻中的创纪录水平回落,更多的资产管理公司表示,他们正寻求将资金转移到低风险、类似现金的资产中。这标志着与近几年的转变,当时稳步攀升的股指训练投资者逢低买入,不会因为持有现金而错失收益。

Rick Rieder, managing director at $Blackrock(BLK.US)$, said the world's largest asset manager is increasing cash holdings by more than 50% in many portfolios to a weighting that is "much, much higher" than it had been in years past. With central banks battling inflation by raising interest rates across the world, he expects stock prices to remain volatile for the next two to six months.

瑞克·里德,董事管理公司$贝莱德(美国黑人)$表示,这家全球最大的资产管理公司正在将许多投资组合中的现金持有量增加50%以上,其权重比过去几年“高得多”。随着世界各地的央行通过提高利率来对抗通胀,他预计未来两到六个月,股价将保持波动。

For now, one of the most attractive things you can do is have patience, and if you can get paid to have patience that's a pretty good place to be." 

- Mr. Rieder said

就目前而言,你能做的最有吸引力的事情之一就是有耐心,如果你能拿到有耐心的报酬,那就是一个相当好的去处。

-里德先生说

Prime money-market funds' holdings in the Americas rose from just under $146 billion in February to $193 billion in March, their highest levels of the year, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Many expect such holdings to keep rising as rates on money markets, short-term bonds and other cash-like investments climb with interest-rates set by the Federal Reserve.

美国投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute)的数据显示,优质货币市场基金在美洲的持有量从2月份的略低于1,460亿美元增至3月份的1,930亿美元,为今年以来的最高水平。许多人预计,随着货币市场、短期债券和其他现金类投资的利率随着美联储设定的利率攀升,此类持有量将继续上升。

Additionally, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose last week above the rate of projected average annual inflation over the next decade for the first time since March 2020. That means investors can once again earn a return on risk-free U.S. government bonds and it is meaningfully more expensive for companies to borrow money.

此外,10年期美国国债收益率上周自2020年3月以来首次超过了未来十年预计的年平均通胀率。这意味着投资者可以再次从无风险的美国政府债券中获得回报,企业借钱的成本也明显上升。

These developments are testing the long-held market view that there is no alternative to U.S. stocks, which is often referred to using the acronym "TINA." The lack of alternatives was "one of the biggest bull mantras for the equity market," said Ohsung Kwon, U.S. equity strategist at Bank of America.

这些事态发展正在考验市场长期持有的观点,即除了美国股市之外别无选择,这一观点经常被用首字母缩写TINA来指代。美国银行美国股市策略师Ohung Kuan表示,缺乏替代选择是“股市最大的牛市口号之一”.

"If the cash yield really hits 3%, I think that the TINA argument really diminishes," Mr. Kwon said. "That is obviously not the best environment for risky assets."

“如果现金收益率真的达到3%,我认为蒂娜的理由真的会减弱,”权相权说。“这显然不是风险资产的最佳环境。”

In recent years, the $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$'s dividend yield, which measures the annualized payouts by companies in the index as a proportion of their share price, has exceeded the yield on bonds maturing in 10 years or more. Moreover, stocks have delivered almost triple their historic return since 2009, meaning they offered both the income of bonds and the potential for greater gains -- a compelling argument for portfolios to be overweight on U.S. equities.

近几年来,$标准普尔500指数(.SPX.US)$股息收益率衡量的是该指数成分股公司的年化派息占其股价的比例,已经超过了10年或更长时间内到期的债券的收益率。此外,自2009年以来,股票的回报率几乎是历史上的三倍,这意味着它们既提供了债券的收益,也提供了更大收益的可能性。这为投资组合增持美国股票提供了一个令人信服的理由。

Bank of America is expecting the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates to 3% by early next year from their current level of 0.25% to 0.50%. That would produce a similar rate for cash-like assets such as money-market funds, which track short-dated Treasurys, high-quality investment-grade bonds and commercial paper. That rate would be more than double the current 1.4% dividend yield of the S&P 500.

美国银行预计,美联储将在明年初将美国利率从目前的0.25%至0.50%上调至3%。这将对货币市场基金等类现金资产产生类似的利率,这些基金跟踪短期美国国债、高质量投资级债券和商业票据。这一比率将是标准普尔500指数目前1.4%股息收益率的两倍多。

Even though rates are well below that today, fund managers said they are ready to move into cash. Bank of America's April survey of global asset managers showed cash holdings are near the highest level since April 2020, which was the aftermath of the Covid-driven market selloff, and cash is one of the survey's most popular trades.

尽管今天的利率远低于这一水平,但基金经理们表示,他们已经准备好转向现金。美国银行4月份对全球资产管理公司的调查显示,现金持有量接近2020年4月以来的最高水平,而2020年4月是Covid引发的市场抛售的后果,现金是调查中最受欢迎的交易之一。

Gaurav Mallik, chief investment strategist and global head of client solutions at State Street Global Advisors, said portfolios at his firm are holding at least 50% more cash than they did at the beginning of the year, with increased focus on "keeping dry powder" by holding cash and money-market funds.

道富环球顾问公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席投资策略师兼客户解决方案全球主管高拉夫·马利克(Gaurav Mallik)说,他的公司的投资组合持有的现金比年初至少增加了50%,人们更多地关注通过持有现金和货币市场基金来“保持干粉”。

"Cash is king right now in terms of the return you're getting," Mr. Mallik said.

马利克说,“就你现在获得的回报而言,现金是王道。”

The TINA narrative is drawing other challenges. Floating-rate debt, which pays increasingly higher interest as short-term borrowing costs rise, has garnered more attention recently, as have Treasury inflation-protected securities. While bond prices have fallen, hurting investors who held them already, those lower prices mean higher payouts that are attractive to new investors.

蒂娜的故事还引发了其他挑战。随着短期借贷成本的上升,浮动利率债券的利息越来越高,它最近引起了更多的关注,美国国债通胀保值债券也是如此。虽然债券价格下跌,损害了已经持有债券的投资者,但较低的价格意味着更高的派息,对新投资者具有吸引力。

In addition, fund managers and advisers said they are getting more questions from clients about vehicles such as savings bonds. Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at the Colony Group, said that as inflation started rising last year he began fielding inquiries about Series I savings bonds, which track the consumer-price index and will offer a yield of 9.62% in May. He purchased the maximum $10,000 investment each for himself and his wife.

此外,基金经理和顾问表示,他们从客户那里得到了更多关于储蓄债券等投资工具的问题。Colony Group首席市场策略师斯坦伯格(Rich Steinberg)说,随着去年通胀开始上升,他开始回复有关第一系列储蓄债券的询问。这种债券跟踪消费者价格指数,5月份的收益率将为9.62%。他为自己和妻子每人购买了最高1万美元的投资。

Mr. Steinberg has increased holdings of cash and is looking to put more money in short-dated U.S. Treasury bonds if the Fed continues its expected path of raising interest rates to at least 2% by year-end.

斯坦伯格已经增加了现金持有量,如果美联储继续按照预期在年底前将利率提高到至少2%的水平,他将把更多资金投入短期美国国债。

"If the Fed follows the game plan that they've started to communicate, I think the TINA days are numbered," he said.

“如果美联储遵循他们已经开始沟通的游戏计划,我认为蒂娜的日子屈指可数了,”他说。

Write to Dion Rabouin at dion.rabouin@wsj.com

写信给Dion Rabouin,电子邮件:dion.rabouin@wsj.com

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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