The quarterly results for Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$434m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Fair Isaac surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$5.16 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Fair Isaac

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Fair Isaac are now predicting revenues of US$1.71b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 6.3% to US$20.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$20.58 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$1,317, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Fair Isaac analyst has a price target of US$1,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$940. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Fair Isaac shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Fair Isaac's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Fair Isaac is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Fair Isaac going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Fair Isaac that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.