Shareholders might have noticed that Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$9.98 in the past week. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$336m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Comstock Resources losing US$0.05 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Comstock Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Comstock Resources' eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.46b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 3.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.20 per share in 2024. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.39b and US$0.10 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Comstock Resources even after this update; although they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a massive increase in per-share losses.

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$9.79, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Comstock Resources analyst has a price target of US$13.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Comstock Resources' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 30% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Comstock Resources' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Comstock Resources. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$9.79, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Comstock Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Comstock Resources analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Comstock Resources (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.