One thing we could say about the analysts on The Valens Company Inc. (TSE:VLNS) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

After the downgrade, the seven analysts covering Valens are now predicting revenues of CA$121m in 2022. If met, this would reflect a huge 55% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 4.5% to CA$0.69 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CA$141m and CA$0.46 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Valens

The consensus price target fell 15% to CA$6.50, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Valens at CA$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$2.50. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 55% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 62% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 26% per year. So it's pretty clear that Valens is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Valens' business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other risks we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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