There's been a notable change in appetite for Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 14% to US$53.51. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$638m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.60 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Exact Sciences

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Exact Sciences from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$2.83b in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 20% to US$1.04. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$2.83b and US$0.88 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Exact Sciences even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$86.59, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exact Sciences at US$100.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$66.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Exact Sciences' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 19% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Exact Sciences' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Exact Sciences going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Exact Sciences that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.