It's been a mediocre week for OraSure Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSUR) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$4.86 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 439% toUS$0.05 per share. Revenues of US$54m did beat expectations by 3.6%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on OraSure Technologies after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for OraSure Technologies

After the latest results, the consensus from OraSure Technologies' five analysts is for revenues of US$190.0m in 2024, which would reflect a substantial 38% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.12 per share in 2024. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$190.3m and losses of US$0.12 per share in 2024.

As a result, it's unexpected to see that the consensus price target fell 5.3% to US$7.15, with the analysts seemingly becoming more concerned about ongoing losses, despite making no major changes to their forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values OraSure Technologies at US$9.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 47% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 25% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - OraSure Technologies is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple OraSure Technologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for OraSure Technologies (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.