There's been a major selloff in B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE:BGS) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 30% to US$8.01. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.51 per share on revenues of US$475m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on B&G Foods after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for B&G Foods

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering B&G Foods is for revenues of US$1.96b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 3.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. B&G Foods is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.10 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.49 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 6.0% to US$10.14, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values B&G Foods at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.9% per year. It's pretty clear that B&G Foods' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that B&G Foods' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for B&G Foods going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for B&G Foods (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.