Shareholders of OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:OSW) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to US$14.84 following its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$211m were what the analysts expected, OneSpaWorld Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.21 per share, an impressive 91% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for OneSpaWorld Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from OneSpaWorld Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$869.8m in 2024. This would reflect a modest 5.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 84% to US$0.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$861.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.52 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$17.25, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic OneSpaWorld Holdings analyst has a price target of US$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that OneSpaWorld Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around OneSpaWorld Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for OneSpaWorld Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - OneSpaWorld Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.