It's been a good week for Mistras Group, Inc. (NYSE:MG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.6% to US$9.45. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.03 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$184m and were slightly better than forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mistras Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Mistras Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mistras Group from three analysts is for revenues of US$740.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 2.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Mistras Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.66 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$737.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.76 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$13.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Mistras Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mistras Group shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mistras Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Mistras Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.5% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.4% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.6% per year. So although Mistras Group's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mistras Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mistras Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Mistras Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Mistras Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.